2020 Season Strength Of Schedule: Quarterbacks
You know what ruffles my feathers?
When people make decisions based on information that does not adequately represent the picture for the decision they are trying to make.
A good example: Strength of schedule (SOS) for the NFL season. Standard SOS is based on the combined win percentage of the previous season. Looking at 2020, New England has the most difficult schedule and Baltimore has the easiest.
My feathers are ruffled. No… NO… We cannot make educated fantasy decisions based on a team's winning percentage and we don’t care about who has a pretty road to the Super Bowl. This is fantasy, where dreams come true with the right data.
In fantasy sports, we care about players that have a pretty road to our championship hardware, which is exactly why we created this series of fantasy points allowed by defenses, by position. PLEASE NOT: We realize there are ways gauge 2020 opponents that take into account offseason changes, but this is still a good place to start your research.
Data Model:
Position: QB
Based on 2019 fantasy points allowed by opposing defenses per game
PPR Scoring
Quads are grouped by teams of 8
Quad 1: Teams 1 to 8 that allowed the most fantasy points
Quad 2: Teams 9 to 16
Quad 3: Team 17 to 24
Quad 4: Teams 25 to 32 that allowed the least points
Ranking is a weighted scoring system based off-tiers. Average points allowed (most to least) is the tie breaker.
Highlighted cells for each quad means that team has 5 or more games against defenses in that particular quad
I.e. Chicago has 5 games against Quad 1 defenses. These are the top 8 defenses that allowed the most points to opposing QBs
The strength of schedule is for your own digestion and a tool for your research.
I’ll however provide a few highlighted thoughts in each series post:
Chicago: To reinforce the importance of looking at fantasy points allowed by position vs. a winning % SOS, Chicago has the easiest schedule for QBs based on fantasy points allowed in 2019. If you compare it to SOS based on 2019 winning %, Chicago has the 13th easiest schedule. Assuming he starts the season, if fellow OH-IO native Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t ride the early easy schedule to W’s, he’ll be riding his way to the bench.
Click image to enlarge
Lamar Jackon and Patrick Mahomes: The HIGH drafted QBs; both players currently have an ADP in the first three rounds. Lamar is in the top ten easiest of schedules, while Patrick Mahomes is in the bottom ten of most difficult. Kansas City and Mahomes will play more quad 4 opponents than any team. You will quickly learn I am on team get exposure to Lamar Jackson. SOS is just another indicator continuing to solidify my love.
Dak Prescott and Josh Allen: Both are guys that are getting industry hype heading into the season. Dak Prescott has a new weapon in CeeDee Lamb and Josh Allen has acquired another deep ball threat, Stefon Diggs. One difference, Dallas has a top three easiest schedule and Josh Allen has a bottom three schedule for QBs.
That’s it for this one. All other positions can be found on our website. If we have data series complete, we’ll drop that shit all at once like Netflix.
