2022 Favorite Best Ball Draft Targets Part 3
gm, Australia.
James Conner is priced in the third round and can sometimes be seen falling to the fourth round….yes, Australia… the fourth!!
James Conner - ADP 33.2 - RB15
A quick look at history: Conner barely played his 2017 Rookie year. In 2018, Conner finished RB6 in 13 games. In 2019 he played 10 games and finished RB33, and in 2020 he played 13 games and finished RB26. If in both 2019 and 2020 his average weekly production was extrapolated into a full season of health, Conner would have finished RB14 both years. Not considering Conner’s time missed in both these seasons, he deserves the benefit of the doubt as he was on below average Steeler offenses. In 2019 Ben Roethlisberger missed the season and Mason Rudolph was a suboptimal replacement (to say the least). In 2020, Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury, but fell off the cliff of age the second half of the season. James Conner when in a solid situation and healthy can be an elite producing RB, which he reignited in 2021 finishing the season RB5 in 15 games
Edmonds departure: RB Chase Edmonds has flown the Cardinals coop. 2021’s RB35 leaves behind 116 rushing attempts and 43 receptions, a total of 159 RB touches. In the weeks that Edmonds missed games in 2021, James Conner had some of his best performances. Edmonds missed weeks 10, 11, 13, 14, and 18..Conner scored 13.9, 18.4, 18.1, 29, and 24.3 points in those games, which was an average of 20.74 points, 4.84 points per game higher than his season average of 15.9 points
Featured role: In addition to RB Edmonds departure, WR Christian Kirk (2021 - 103 targets) is now in Miami while Arizona’s WR1 DeAndre Hopkins (2021-64 targets-10 games played) is suspended the first 6 games of the season due to a PED violation. I understand market sentiment may price in concern for the Cardinals offense as a whole potentially not being as dynamic and capable to move the ball due to these losses, however, I am not as concerned. I believe the offense will be just as capable as 2021 with new signed WR Marquise Brown filling the volume left behind by Kirk, and as a whole, I think there is an outcome where Conner could be more featured until Hopkins return. Conner’s three best performances of 2021 Hopkins either missed the game or left injured: Week 9 Conner Scored 37.8 points (Hopkins missed game), Week 10 Conner scored 29 points (Hopkins missed game), week 14 Conner scored 24.3 points (Hopkins left game due to injury)
Age: James Conner is old! No, James Conner is 27 and will be 28 in May of 2023
Follow the bag: Yeah, yeah… Arizona signed RB Darrell Williams who finished 2021 RB22 while securing 47 receptions in Kansas City. As Williams (or Eno Benjamin) could slightly ding James Conner’s volume, I’m willing to follow Conner’s new contract of 3yr $21mm (steak) vs Darrell Williams 1 year $1.19MM (a bag of stale half opened bag of cool ranch Doritos) to a path of touchdowns. In .5 PPR scoring I want TD scoring RBs, Conner scored 15 rushing TDs in 2021 and will be the goal line back on a capable offense in 2022
Market price: I believe because of the points noted above, Conner could deservingly be priced in the middle of the 2nd round. However, he has found his way nearing the notorious “RB deadzone.” Conner’s potential mispricing can be a great opportunity to buy and anchor the RB position in a third round of what I believe are riskier WR bets than the price implies
Currently sitting at 20%+ exposure across near 400 drafts. Surely nothing will go wrong here. g2g
