Best Ball Strategy: Targeting Backfields
gm, Australia.
As you may have listened to our podcast Episode 135: Team Running Back Situations to Target in Best Ball Drafts podcast, we discussed not just the idea of targeting two RBs from one team ‘handcuffing’, but targeting two RBs from the same backfield based on price. This ultimately lead to sifting through the 2022 ambiguous backfields and concluding with the idea that uncertain backfields may just be an opportunity to cheaply secure RBs in good team offensive situations, but poor player situations due to uncertainty (i.e. Injury, running back by committee risk).
Here are some additional thoughts on the strategy since that episode.
Again, feel free to dismiss and not apply the strategy as I will test in 2022 and report back in 2023. thx, Austrailia
Construction
When I am targeting two RBs from the same backfield or handcuffing on the same drafted team, I am primarily targeting priced down RB situations on teams that I have started the draft either with a zero RB construction or a hero RB / anchor RB construction. In other terms, if I have accepted a degree of risk in my RB build by not selecting RB depth early, I am then more accepting of targeting two RBs from the same team late because on those drafted teams, I am already targeting RB depth later in the draft (6 to 7 RBs starting as early as round 7).
Minimize Points Lost - Play To Advance: I believe securing two RBs from a good backfield guarantees potential weekly usable points, opposed to punting RB downstream on a zero RB team filled with speculative RB2s that essentially are time sensitive builds dependent on a RB1 missing playing time (i.e. injury). Instead of mostly depending on the production of the strength of those team (i.e. WRs) early in the season, I want to minimize the amount of points lost to the other 11 teams in the draft room at the RB position in order to increase my chances of advancing past week 14. With a good backfield RB handcuff strategy, we are ultimately targeting utilization for one of the RB spots and then leaving the remaining RB spot to be utilized by deeper speculative depth at the position, playing the volatility of the position week-to-week.
Maximize Points Gained - Play To Win: When securing two RBs from an uncertain backfield, there are can be multiple paths to winning upside:
A) One of the RBs emerges from the thought committee and dominates the fantasy season. In a RB build with speculative RB depth, I don’t think it is a negative to then have the backup RB rostered that is providing limited best ball points added as I believe as drafters we are generally overconfident that we will draft multiple RBs that will provide usable points in risk on RB builds (i.e. NFL teams RB2s). To ‘hit’ one RB drafted in the 8th RD or higher that finishes as a top 10-15 RB is a win when the strength of hero RB build / zero RB build is at other positions
B) If it is a committee, one RB can get injured / miss time which sets the other RB up for success
C) The theoretical week 15 - 17 upside is leverage due to low ownership for one of the two RBs. For example, if Nick Chubb in week 15 scores 30 points and Kareem Hunt has 5 points, Chubb will be one of the higher owned players week 16 and Hunt will be one of the lower owned players. If Hunt has a ceiling outcome performance week 16, that is leverage on the field as few teams have Hunt, when a lot of team have Chubb. A RB missing time due to injury is the most likely path of success for this narrative
Most Bullish Target
On the podcast we mentioned a handful of situations that we would be targeting to test this theory. Since the podcast two months ago, I have grown most confident in one particular backfield: the New England Patriots (Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson).
Currently Harris has an ADP of 90.1 (RB29) and Stevenson has an ADP of 105.6 (RB34). The combination of the two is the 12th most expensive RB-RB combination when drafting the first two RBs drafted from each team. Based on their ADPs, with relative ease Harris can be scooped in the middle of the 8th RD and Stevenson in the 9th
Per Jared Smola, The Patriots have finished top 12 in rushing TDs in 18 straight seasons. They’ve ranked top 6 in 13 of those 18. In 2021, New England had the 2nd most rushing TDs (24)
In 2021, the Patriots had the 7th highest run percentage in the league (47.8%)
In 2021, the New England backfield in total scored the most .5 PPR fantasy points
Receiving specialist and former Patriots RB Brandon Bolden accounted for 103.6 of the 2021 points. Bolden consumed 41 receptions and had two games > 15 points. Bolden is now a Raider and James White (pass catching specialist) is recovering from a hip injury, which has lead to rumblings and speculation that Stevenson could potentially see increased involvement in the passing game (third down), an additional bonus to the handcuffing strategy
It can be defined that a score over 10 points is usable production. In 2021, Harris and Stevenson combined for 14 total occurrences over 10 points. A ‘two for one’ strategy at reduced price, the duo combined for:
Seven games 10 - 15 points
Three games 15 - 20 points
Four games > 20 points ; 2 - Harris, 2 - Stevenson
Only 5 RBs (Taylor - 7, Ekeler - 5, Mixon - 7, Harris - 5, Chubb 5) scored more than 20 points more than 4 times last year
Week 6 and Week 17 (best ball championship week) both Harris and Stevenson scored over 10 points (Harris - 17.2 / 22.7). Yes - there is an outcome that both players can score usable production the same week of the season
Concluding Thoughts
I’m bullish on the New England backfield as a whole to score plenty of fantasy points this season. New England will feed their RBs!
As I do have have a preference to draft Stevenson over Harris when only drafting one of the two RBs, I think the strategy of securing the backfield (drafting them both) is a more than viable strategy in 2022 on zero RB and hero RB / anchor RB teams (For an eloquent Rhamondre case, check out the Underdog Boys, Josh Norris and Hayden Winks “I’m Leaving Every Fantasy Draft With Rhamondre Stevenson” video).
Ultimately with this strategy I am betting on one backfield in my constructions to utilize ONE of my RB starting positions. For the other RB position I am then: A) playing the volatility of the remaining depth at the RB position in a zero RB build or B) depending on the anchor RB drafted in a hero RB build.
As New England is my favorite backfield that I think can produce usable and both ceiling (20+) point weeks at a reasonable price, below are some of my other favorite backfields (based on price) that I have been mixing in.
Philadelphia Eagles - Miles Sanders 77.2 ADP - Kenneth Gainwell 158.4 : Efficient running offense
Buffalo Bills - Devin Singletary 97.8 - James Cook - 110.7 : Projected 2022 best offense in football
San Francisco 49ers - Elijah Mitchell 63.5 - Tyrion Davis-Price 154.8 : Run first team
Data 7-22-22
This is one micro strategy in a portfolio of macro strategy. As always, multiple ways to bake cake. Come back for more best ball strategy soon degenz. g2g
p.s. Josh Jacobs - Zamir White
