Learned Lessons From 2021 Best Ball Season
gm, Austrailia.
As true fantasy football degenz, we are always trying to improve. Below please find my main learned lessons from the 2021 best ball season as we already begin to fire drafts on Underdog Fantasy and FFPC for the 2022 NFL season.
Over stacking. I have always said that I am a correlation whore in DFS, but in best ball last year I took it too far. For example, I was so high on the Rams that I had more teams than I should of with four or more players from Los Angeles. LA wasn’t the end of the list either as I loaded into Dallas and other teams. This year I am targeting more single and double stacks as I want the top 1% ROI stack. AKA the QB - single pass catcher combination that obliterate ADP. Who will be the Matthew-Kupp stack of 2021, or the Allen-Diggs of 2020?
Draft situations. First and foremost, I am a ‘target situations’ drafter. I target teams as a whole that I think collectively can beat ADP. Of players drafted 300 times or more in Best Ball Mania II, three teams (TB, LAR & LAC) had three or more players in the top 25 of advancing players. As I will be avoiding drafting heavily into one offense on one best ball team (point 1), I will be targeting particular offenses in my portfolio as a whole.
QB/RB correlation. To point 1, I was over stacking. To take it a step further, I was too overweight QB-RB stacks on teams that had a fragile build of QB (2) and RB (4), which overall limited the teams upside. I will still be mixing in QB-RB correlation this year, but not near to the extent of last year. On the teams that I do correlate QB-RB from the same team, I will be either a) prioritizing pass catchers b) drafting depth at either/or both the QB and RB positions c) not spending high draft capital prices on both the QB and RB. Note: I like correlating QB-RB stacks more in Superflex; more depth at the QB position means more opportunity to fill the void of the stacked QB floor week in hopes of hitting the stacked RB ceiling.
Draftkings NFL futures for highest and least scoring offense were fairly predictive. 7/12 (58%) of teams most favored to score the most points, scored the most points. 10/12 (83%) of teams most favored to score the least amount of points, scored the least points. In leyman terms, based on 2021, in 2022 if a team is expected to be a low scoring offense, in all likeliness it will be a low scoring offense. Be wary of these offenses as whole in best ball, but understand the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals of the world do exist.
Heavy intra-divisional stacking didn’t work, but light intra-divisional stacking did. Zero of my estimated 15 teams that I heavily stacked from solely either the NFC West or NFC East advanced. However, there was success by targeting the most highly favored division by team to the the Superbowl on DraftKings (i.e. NFC West). Good teams have good players, and the NFC West had a lot last year (i.e. Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, James Conner). A one year sample size is too small to completely dismiss the theory of intra-divisional stacking. I still believe in eliminating time-of-production uncertainty by mixing in two games of the year between divisional opponents for stack - runback correlation upside. I’ll be writing more about intra-divisional stacking (part II) in a later post.
Solo tight end builds were a success. I drafted 23 teams last year with a solo TE. I had one team (Mark Andrews) that finished 17th in BBMII, one team (Travis Kelce) that made it to the semi finals in Puppy 3, while Bun had one team (Andrews) that made it to the Puppy 3 final finishing 70th. More than half of my other teams were Darren Waller, which were dead. Solo TE is a risky build, but is GD viable.
Four quarterback builds worked. 2/5 of the teams that I drafted four quarterbacks made it to the semi-finals. The haters will hate, but hitting the right anchors at RB, WR or TE may justify more player allocation to the highest scoring position which is quarterback (i.e. 2021 Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews).
Best ball backstop model remains viable. Usable points are cool, and boring AF slot wide receivers can deliver usable points, but also ceiling points. These players commonly don’t get hyped and there ADP only falls as the NFL season approaches because they don’t make exciting plays, but each year there is a late round slot wide receiver that destroys their ADP. In 2020 it was Cole Beasley (15th round ADP - finished WR26), In 2021 it was Hunter Renfrow (18th round ADP - finished WR11). Not to mention 2021 Christian Kirk (15th round ADP - finished WR28)… you might not like the backstop model, but each year someone delivers from it - DAMMMIT!!!!!!!!
High exposure of 1st and 2nd round picks. Last year I made a conscience effort to stay near 20% exposure on both Ezekiel “Beef” Elliot and DeAndre Hopkins. As bad as Beef was (looked spoiled), he still finished the year RB6. Meanwhile Hopkins finished WR20 in fantasy points per game, but nearly missed the entire second half of the year. The issue was not their performances, but rather their high exposure which lead to very little exposure of players like Jonathan Taylor (RB1), Austin Ekeler (RB2) and Devante Adams (WR3) AKA too high opportunity cost. All players each year are priced in the first two rounds because they’re expected to be the best players. In best ball, I need to spread out my exposure to the best players instead of trying to predict the best of the best.
High exposure of late round picks. This is always a difficult topic because each year you have the handful of players that become routine late picks because they’re always available, and that’s just it, they are always available because they’re priced down for one reason or another. In 2021 in my portfolio it was KJ Hamler (25%-missed year due to injury) Dwayne Eskridge (28%-missed 8 games due to concussion) and Jerrick McKinnon (22%-missed 8 games). A greater spread of exposure to late round picks is in order for me in 2022 to hit the 2021 20th round Hunter Renfrow’s of the world. We will see if I have the discipline. Note: Early draft season there are greater edges to be had relative to ADP so I am more lenient on higher exposure early on (i.e. Leonard Fournette 9th round ADP all to re-sign with the Buccaneers and jump 6 rounds).
Have conviction on Rookies? Draft them early. After the 2021 NFL draft, 74% of Rookies saw a rise in ADP. As the season approaches, market sentiment rises on rookies. Get them early if you have conviction on a #Special player.
Patience to buy new faces in new places may pay off. When veterans change teams the market is hyper-reactionary, driving price to peak points of draft season. Opposite of Rookies, majority of these players see price softening as the season draws near. In 2021 ADP fell for 14 of 23, or 61% of notable players that changed teams.
Sticking to player conviction on players with worthy ROI. To points 8 and 9, it is probably sounding like I am saying don’t have high exposure anywhere, I am not. Last year my high conviction on the Rams, but specifically Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, lead me to 20% Stafford and 20% Kupp, a good majority of which was stacked. Greater conviction on higher exposed players is better had at a price point where there is room for worthy ROI. Stafford was being drafted as QB12 and finished QB5 (+7). Kupp was being drafted WR16 and finished WR1 (+15). For my portfolio as a whole, the middle rounds are the rounds I will be taking my primary stances of conviction in 2022 because the players are good fantasy producers and the return can be worth the price.
Use popular negative market sentiment as leverage. In DFS leverage is having exposure to a low owned player when the field is overweight another player(s). In best ball there can be leverage through exposure to players that the market is down on, but who you think can well outperform their ADP. In 2021, Leonard Fournette was the most prime example of negative market sentiment as his ADP only fell the entirety of the year (RB41 ADP - Finished RB7). Kadarius Toney is another 2021 example whose ADP fell from the 14th round to the 18th round due to negative market sentiment. Quite frankly the industry got bailed out on Toney due to his injuries. We at FU will continue to provide ADP market updates (podcasts and blogs) - Be on the lookout.
Draft overweight proven production vs. could be production. Each year there are proven players priced down due to lack of production the year prior or uncertainty. Case study Cooper Kupp 2019 (coming off injury), Stefon Diggs 2020 (switched teams), Mark Andrews 2021 (down 2020 production). Check BTFD candidates.
Spreading rookie ownership. The 49ers traded up last year and drafted Trey Sermon. Sermon then went on to have a good pre season and then was hyped by Mike McDaniel two weeks before the season. There were signs pointing to Sermon as a Rookie darling which lead to him being one of my highest exposed RBs. It ended up being Rookie RB Elijah Mitchell who emerged from the backfield, not Sermon (ouch for my Sermon exposure). The year prior Rookie WR Justin Jefferson (14th round ADP), ended up breaking the record for most receiving yards in a season by a Rookie. Jefferson was in a draft class of WRs Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy and a deep list of other wide receivers of which had more expensive ADP price tags. In 2022 Amon-Ra St. Brown went on a late season tear and was one of the most important players to have exposure to in the post qualifying Best Ball Mania II rounds. The point in all these examples is that rookies have value, but it is not the easiest to identify which is the right rookie that will be a season winner. I will be more exposed to some rookies than others because conviction is needed, but in 2022 I am not going to go all in on a few rookies only, while completely discounting others.
Draft to narrative. Not to build. If there is one point on this entire list that is the most important, it is this one. In everything I write I will never say that one roster construction is the only way to draft. I don’t believe there is an “optimal” construction, only “viable” constructions because at a micro level, each draft is completely different and the narrative that you draft to may justify a different construction than the draft prior. In Best Ball Mania II, the top 50 lineups had 15 different construction types. I have my preferred constructions, which you can find on the blog, but the truth is, there are MULTIPLE WAYS TO SKIN A CAT AND MULTIPLE WAYS TO BAKE CAKE. Hope to see more tout tweets abusing the word optimal in regard to everything best ball. That can be leverage my friends. g2g
