New Faces, News Places - How ADP & Results Shook Out In 2021

gm, Australia.

As Warren Buffet would say, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

In the fantasy football best ball ADP market, the greed to buy an experienced player that has landed in a new offensive situation can drive price point sky high.

As all buyers frantically break ADP to gain exposure, price reaches a point that the market begins to question: “Should this player really be valued in this particular price range?”… Or at least that is what the 2021 data would suggest.

Below is a complete review of how ADP moved for 23 notable 2021 players that changed teams through free agency or trades. The analysis also includes how the 23 players finished the 2021 season compared to their September 9 ADP.

Overall ADP Movement

• Of the 23 notable players that changed teams, 14 or 61% of players’ ADP fell, while 9 or 39% of players ADP rose.

• All 3 quarterbacks’ ADP fell (Mattthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold).

• 4/5 or 80% of running backs’ ADP fell. Mike Davis, James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Jerrick McKinnon fell while only Carlos Hyde rose.

• 3/4 or 75% of tight ends ADP rose. I believe this is due to the overall position not being as “sexy” as RB or WR. TE takes gradual time to correct in price where as QB, RB, WR the market is hyper-reactive to news.

• Wide receivers, like rookie wide receiver ADP movement, was a near even split as, 5 or 45% of wide receivers ADP fell, while 6 or 55% of wide receivers ADP rose. I attribute this to preseason news / performance hype as well as gradual price correction.

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• As far as 2021 finishing fantasy position versus September 9th positional ranked ADP, 10 or 43% of the players returned a positive return on investment (ROI), where as 13 or 57% returned a negative ROI.

• 2/3 or 66% of quarterbacks returned a positive ROI.

• 4/5 or 80% of running backs returned a negative ROI.

• Tight end was split as half returned a positive ROI while half returned negative ROI.

• 5 or 45% of wide receivers returned a positive ROI while 6 or 55% of wide receivers returned negative ROI.

  *All individual player ROI is noted by player further in the post.

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By Player Nugz

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford

• ADP

  • Down 5.2

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: QB12

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: QB5

  • ROI: +7

• #Matthew gradually fell and then found ground in the middle of the 9th round. Last second buyers caught steam that it was going to be #Matthew to #Kupp #Szn.

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Sam Darnold

• ADP

  • Down 9.6

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: QB26

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: QB28

  • ROI: -2

• Injury Note

  • Missed 5 Games

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Carson Wentz

• ADP

  • Down 39.9

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: QB28

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: QB14

  • ROI: +14

• Wentz’s big decline from ~160 to 210 was due to his foot injury that had his early season good health in doubt. He ended up playing all 17 games.

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Running Back

Mike Davis

• ADP

  • Down 14.3

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: RB23

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: RB37

  • ROI: -14

• Can I get a LOL? LOL!!!!!! It’s nearly a year later and I am still thinking about Mike Davis priced as a 4th rounder. The quad pictures that surfaced the internet didn’t help negating the hype. Still, his ADP was about 5 rounds too high.

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James Conner

• ADP

  • Down 12.3

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: RB37

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: RB5

  • ROI: +32

• One of the best buys of 2021, Conner fell 1 round over the course of 3 months. Running back by committee uncertainty surely added to his price falling.

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Kenyan Drake

• ADP

  • Down 7.5

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: RB40

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: RB57

  • ROI: -17

• Injury Note

  • Missed 5 Games

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Carlos Hyde

• ADP

  • Up 7

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: RB64

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: RB84

  • ROI: -20

• Injury Note

  • Missed 5 Games

• That tick up from 215 to 201 is the Urban Meyer narrative. RIP Urban era.

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Jerick McKinnon

• ADP

  • Down 5.6

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: RB66

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: RB94

  • ROI: -28

• Injury Note

  • Missed 8 Games

• Just imagine the world where Jerick McKinnon produces in the 2021 season like he did in the 2021 playoffs. That is the world my 2021 exposure will continue to fantasize about.

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Wide Receiver

Julio Jones

• ADP

  • Down 3.8

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR20

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR93

  • ROI: -73

• Injury Note

  • Missed 7 Games

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Corey Davis

• ADP

  • Up 39.9

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR36

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR66

  • ROI: -30

• Injury Note

  • Missed 8 Games

• Davis saw a consistent rise in ADP, which could have been because his ADP didn’t change all that much when he joined the Jets, hence a late correction attempt by the market. The spike in August was the Elijah Moore injury and Davis’ good preseason, flashing chemistry with QB Zach Wilson. A near three round jump in the month of September alone.

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Kenny Golladay

• ADP

  • Down 24.3

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR39

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR84

  • ROI: -45

• Golladay had a preseason injury which added to his price descending.

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Will Fuller

• ADP

  • Down 11.3

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR43

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR185

  • ROI: -142

• Injury Note

  • Missed 15 Games

• Fuller had a preseason injury which added to his price descending.

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Marvin Jones

• ADP

  • Up 17.5

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR52

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR34

  • ROI: +18

• Jones’s consistent gradual rise in ADP was the market saying, “Marvin Jones can produce in best ball,” which could repeat again in 2022.

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Curtis Samuel

• ADP

  • Down 23.7

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR55

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR184

  • ROI: -129

• Injury Note

  • Missed 12 Games

• Samuel had a preseason injury which added to his price descending.

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Emmanuel Sanders

• ADP

  • Up 35.4

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR62

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR52

  • ROI: +10

• Sentiment rose in the industry on the thought that everyone was overlooking Emmanual Sanders. The only thing being overlooked was a modest +10 positional ROI.

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Nelson Agholor

• ADP

  • Down 4.2

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR66

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR67

  • ROI: -1

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A.J. Green

• ADP

  • Up 33.7

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR73

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR41

  • ROI: +32

• Green’s ADP did not correct when he was traded. This was a gradual correction for an unsexy name.

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Randall Cobb

• ADP

  • Down 23.4

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR76

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR74

  • ROI: +2

• Injury Note

  • Missed 6 Games

• Cobb has a red graph because after he signed with Green Bay, his ADP fell in August to end of draft season. A prime example of the market hyper-overreacting to a new face in a new place.

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Kendrick Bourne

• ADP

  • Down 1.1

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: WR100

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: WR30

  • ROI: +70

• No love for Kendrick Bourne the entire 2021 season. I love Bourne’s current 2022 price tag of WR66.

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Tight End

Jonnu Smith

• ADP

  • Up 22.9

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: TE12

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: TE34

  • ROI: -22

• The market began to get excited about Smith’s athleticsm leading into the season. I think I remember seeing “Everyone is missing it. Jonnu Smith is going to be huge in 2021” tweets. Turned out to be Hunter Henry. Please see below.

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Gerald Everett

• ADP

  • Up 30.7

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: TE14

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: TE20

  • ROI: -6

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Jared Cook

• ADP

  • Down 4.6

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: TE19

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: TE16

  • ROI: +3

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Hunter Henry

• ADP

  • Up 4.8

• Positional Rank

  • September 9th: TE17

  • 2021 Finishing Rank: TE9

  • ROI: +8

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Concluding Thoughts

At a micro level looking player-by-player, I think it is fairly safe to say that a lot of the ‘big player names’ tend to get driven up to their peak price near the time of the news the player changes teams. Due to the hyper-reaction by the market, these names tend to see price soften as the season approaches. 2021 examples include Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Mike Davis, James Conner and Kenyan Drake.

Conversely, players that are not as exciting fantasy names tend to see more gradual rises in ADP. 2021 examples include tight ends Gerald Everett, Hunter Henry as well as long time veterans Emmanuel Sanders, AJ Green and Marvin Jones.

Specific to Wide Receiver, this is the second data set (ref. Rookie ADP) where there has been volatile movement both to the upside and downside for the positional group. Overall I think there needs to be more mindful drafting when loading into WR player exposure early (risk-reward to the death of me).

There is nothing specific that stands out about ROI based on 2021. 9 of the players in the sample missed 5 or more games, which skus the ROI analysis. What I would say is there are clearly winners each year for players that change teams. 2020 both Stefon Diggs and Robby Anderson. 2021 James Conner, Matthew Stafford and Kendrick Bourne.

Overall don’t be surprised when the ADP sky rockets for a player that changes teams, and remember that there is a good chance that the player’ ADP will soften as the NFL season approaches. Ask yourself, has this price gotten too high and should I buy? Or instead, you can just listen to the FantasyUnleashd podcast where we grind ADP and the best ball streets like it is our second job (it is).

ttyl, Australia