10 Off-Kilter 2020 NFL Predictions
What’s fantasy football without some sauced-up bold predictions? In no particular order, here are 10 of my off-kilter predictions for the 2020 NFL season.
1. Six Rookie Running Backs Finish Inside The Top 24 RBs
In a year where fantasy managers were shying away from rookies, this class appears to be setup as any for strong finishes. As of 9/3 on Fantasypros PPR expert consensus rankings, only two rookies (Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Jonathan Taylor) were ranked in the top 24 for the RB position. I’ll venture to say that Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift, and JK Dobbins finish inside the top 24. I didn’t even name Zack Moss!
2. Diontae Johnson Does Not Finish As The WR2 In Pittsburgh
I get it. Diontae Johnson was very good after the catch last season and popped on Matt Harmon’s reception perception separation metric. I think Johnson is an awesome receiver. I also think it is pre-mature to proclaim Johnson as the sure #2 fantasy receiver in Pittsburgh. WR James Washington had identical production to Johnson in 2019. Washington is now in year three and was the former collegiate Biletnikoff Award recepient, which if you are not familiar, is the award for best collegiate WR. Washington isn’t the only competition, the Steelers expended their first draft selection of 2020 on WR Chase Claypool.
Other than Washington who received very few targets his rookie year, none of these receivers have a proven rapport with QB Ben Roethlisberger. There have been whispers that Big Ben built a fast rapport with Claypool in training camp as both Washington and Johnson missed time due to injury. I’m not saying that Claypool is the guy, I’m saying that it’s too soon to say that Johnson is.
3. Matthew Stafford Finishes As QB1
Detroit 2020. DETROIT 2020!!!! I am fully behind what I believe will be one of the most exciting offenses in the league with new addition at running back, D’Andre Swift. Matthew Stafford is back healthy with offensive continuity and has offensive weapons at every position at his disposal. The outlook for Detroit’s defense looks poor, which means the team will be leaning on the O to win games. Don’t be surprised when Stafford throws for 44 passing touchdowns this season. Yes – exactly 44.
4. CMC Finishes This Year As RB3
THAT’S BOLD. I know, I know. Is it really that bold of a prediction? Not really because RB3 would still obviously be awesome. However, I don’t think I’ve seen a set of rankings that have CMC outside of number one. Oh, wait… mine do!
Carolina has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new quarterback in what has been a shortened off-season. Regression doesn’t seem out of the realm even if he is superman.
Plus, as this isn’t exactly an extremely bearish take on CMC, I am bullish on Ezekiel Elliot and Derrick Henry. I see Elliot potentially leading all RBs with a 20+ touchdowns this season and Henry totaling 2000+ total combined yards. Regression or not, if Zeke and Henry have the seasons I am expecting, CMC should finish outside of the top two running backs.
5. Both Colts RBs Rush For 1000 Yards
Let me just say I don’t even want this to happen as I am sitting on a fat pile of Jonathan Taylor shares. Taylor is the better back of the two and I think he will claim the lead role sooner than later. However, the Colts schedule is cake and their defense is improved. I think this is going to be the least stressful season of Philip Rivers career as he hands the ball off 35 times per game to both Taylor and Mack. Don’t draft Mack because all 14 rushing touchdowns will be absorbed by JT.
6. Adam Thielen Leads The League In Receptions
For similar reason to to why we at FU love Irv Smith Jr., I love Adam Thielen to lead the league in receptions. Stefon Diggs is gone and is leaving behind bucco targets (2019 – 94 targets, 2018-149 targets, 2017-95 targets). Thielen is far and away Kirk Cousins favorite target in Minnesota and will be heavily targeted all season. I think a 150 target season is a 360-windmill-between-the-legs slam dunk guarantee. Score: Perfect 10!
7. Lamar Jackson Rushes The Ball More In 2020 Than 2019
Yeah, I’m not buying the rumors that Baltimore plans to use Lamar Jackson less as a runner. Especially when the whole rushing quarterbacks are more injury prone is a GD conspiracy theory. Plus, Baltimore as a team ran for the most rushing yards in NFL history in 2019 while having the best offense in the league for the 2019 season. Sure, let’s deviate from the plan that gave us an offensive unstoppable competitive advantage in 2020!
He rushed the ball 176 times in 2019 and will beat that number in 2020. Everyone will also be asking themselves, “Why did I categorize him as a quarterback during the draft?” as he surpasses 1000 yards rushing again, too. He’s a fricken unicorn, damm-it!
8. Courtland Sutton Finishes 2020 As A Top 12 WR
I decided to choose Courtland Sutton because he is hated by both FU members Beaver and Bun. Also, the overall sentiment in the fantasy community seems to be love-less. I don’t get it.
Is everyone really that scared of rookie Jerry Jeudy? Sutton is entering year three (WR breakout territory) and is a 6’4” physically dominant specimen. He finished 2019 as WR19 in an offense that saw three changes at QB.
My favorite statistic that I’ve continued to recycle on my twitter feed, Sutton saw the tightest 1st STDV of targets (1.3) for all WRs in 2019 that had more than 50 total targets. While it was a tight STDV of targets, he also averaged 7.8 targets per game. That’s a bonafide first-tier cotton-needs-new-shorts stat that I’ll buy into when the numbers barely changed when Drew Lock stepped into the starting QB role. A prodigy of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Sutton takes another leap in 2020 on an offense that I am expecting to be an underground party as Lock exceeds consensus expectation.
9. Five Quarterbacks Surpass 100 Rush Attempts
In the last five years there has not been one occurrence of more than three quarterbacks surpassing 100 rush attempts in a single season. This year may be the most stacked year for depth of quarterbacks that provide rushing upside. I believe that Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Cam Newton are all stone locks to hit the century mark. Other quarterbacks and situations that are appealing are Deshaun Watson in Houston, Russell Wilson in Seattle, Josh Allen in Buffalo, and Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles.
A DeAndre Hopkins-less Texans team has me believing in a full unleashing of Watson who is the most overshadowed QB superstar in the NFL. I think that this is also the year that Russ cooks, which more passing opportunities should open the door for more scrambles. Allen is the stallion that has rushed the ball 89 times and 109 times his first two years. When Taylor plays an entire season, he runs the ball as much as anyone in the league (2015-104 rushes, 2016-94 rushes, 2017-85 rushes). All of these guys have the ability to rush 100 times, two of the four will hit for a total of five in 2020.
10. OJ Howard Outscores Rob Gronkowski In Fantasy
GRONK SPIKE… More like, HOWARD SPIKE. Rob Gronkowski is on the decline of his career and does not currently have the wheels or athleticism that 2017 first round pick OJ Howard has. I truly think that Howard is the primary beneficiary of Tom Brady’s arrival and it will show early in the season. I see this being a situation where Gronk and Howard split touchdowns, but Howard has more involvement outside of the red zone collecting more receptions and receiving yards.
11. Honorable Mention: FantasyUnleashd wins the 2020 FFPC Main Event.
We completed our draft last Saturday August, 29th . Since the draft:
- Cam Newton has been praised by Bill Belichick and was named one of the three offeredsive captains for the Patriots. We drafted him as our QB2 on the 16/17 turn.
- Starting veteran WR Tyrell Williams was placed on season-ending injury reserve, bumping the value of draft selection rookie WR Henry Ruggs.
- Philadelphia cut running back Elijah Holyfield, leaving only three running backs on the Eagles roster. This is a positive sign that Miles Sanders leg may be minor.
- Philadelphia rookie WR Jalen Reagor went down in training camp with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss four weeks. Desean Jackson will now be the uncontested WR1 on the Eagles to start the season.
- The Washington Football Team cut legendary RB Adrian Peterson. Hyped athletic freak rookie RB Antonio Gibson is now being drafted in the 4th to 5th round.
*Click image to expand or click this link to see the full draftboard
All players above that we drafted we’ve been hammering all off-season. There is a SPECIAL love for each of them. However, we don’t deny that some of these situations have been unexpected and so happened to advantageously break our way. Regardless, we’re feeling better about our team as each day passes. LET’S GET THIS BREAD.
