5 Fun NFL Bets For The 2020 Season
Hello friends. I hope you’re all doing well out there. I’ve been swimming in fantasy football content, research, and drafts for weeks now. But with the season about to kick off, I wanted to take a different perspective and swing over to the betting side.
So I sat down in front of the sportsbooks on FanDuel and DraftKings to find some interesting bets heading into the 2020 NFL season. I put together five bets that I find somewhat interesting. If you’re a true betting degen who hits the books as hard as I hit fantasy drafts, you’re likely shopping around to multiple books to find the best lines. For this post, I simply compared the sportsbooks at FanDuel and DraftKings. Also, I live in Ohio and can’t bet anyways, so whatever.
A couple notes here. First off, I wrote this for casual bettors. I am not a betting expert and these picks are admittedly on the “flashy” side to make this better content. Nothing but transparency here folks!
Also, I’ve heard some buzz about people wanting to take the UNDER on bets in case the season is cut short. Both the FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks requires 16 games played for their player props, making this a moot point.
With that being said, it generally is wise to play the UNDER on player props, because the books know the public loves playing the OVER and prices bets accordingly, plus there’s always the chance an injury derails an OVER bet.
FanDuel (FD): 2-Pronged Cardinals Bet
My view on Arizona this year is that it’s either going to be really awesome, or basically what we saw last year: mediocre and inconsistent. It’s really fun to imagine what COULD be with Kyler Murray, and I admit I do think that if this team and its philosophy does in fact gel, there will be fireworks in Arizona; it’s not hard to imagine an MVP season for Murray. That’s why I’m hedging my main bet with a $3 stab on the OVER for the alternate 9.5 win total with the +650 odds.
However, I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, and I’m not sold that their exciting offense will be as efficient as it needs to be to make up for this.
The Cardinals primary over/under is at 7.5. I’m thinking they’re a pretty popular OVER bet, and the books may be pricing them up. So I went down to the 6.5 win total to get better odds on this one. In total, I’m risking $33 to win $40.50 should the Cardinals win 6 or fewer games. If they win 10 or more games, I still get 60% of my money back.
DraftKings (DK): Betting on Riverboat Ron
This is my favorite bet across the board. The Washington Football Team had one of the most tumultuous offseasons in NFL history. Not only did they have to deal with all the fallout surrounding dumbass owner Dan Snyder, but they also were hit with news that new head coach Ron Rivera was diagnosed with lymph node cancer. Rivera has always been someone I’ve held in high regard, striking me a true professional and a man of character, and from everything I’ve ever heard, he’s highly respected by his peers. He’s literally someone I want to bet on, and I have no doubt he’ll kick cancer’s ass.
I’m willing to bet the Washington Football Team wants to get the job done for him, too, but the bar is rightfully set plenty low for them, with the DraftKings Sportsbook listing their total wins over/under at 5. If this team rallies behind Rivera, overcomes their outrageous offseason, and is able to rip off some wins, it’s not hard to imagine Rivera bringing home this hardwear. However, DraftKings has failed to price this bet according, leaving Rivera near the bottom of its list at +3000. On FanDuel he’s near the top at +1600.
FD: Ravens Week 1 Onslaught
The Ravens may not run as hot offensively this year as they did in 2019. Meanwhile, the Browns could play much better than the 2019 disaster that was the Freddie Kitchens experiment. Still, -7.5 at home in week 1 against the Browns seems pretty fair to me! However, you also have to consider that Ravens have been unstoppable in week 1.
NFL Regular Season Week 1: @Browns at @Ravens
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) May 7, 2020
Baltimore has a 9-3 record in season openers under John Harbaugh, winning four in a row by a combined score of 139-20.
This feels like a good place to shoot in week 1, betting on a top 3 team at home with a history of week 1 dominance against the Browns, who have a new coaching staff coming off the weird offseason. I want to get a bit greedy here, since this is FUN bets. So let’s go to the alternate line and take the Baltimore -14, leaning into a Ravens blowout against a Browns team that couldn’t stop the run for shit last year.
DK: Patriots aren’t dead yet!
Everyone loves the Bills this year. I get it: they’re building their team right, and another year of improvement for Josh Allen could take Buffalo to the next level. Plus, the Patriots not only lost Tom Brady this offseason, but a number of key defensive players opted out. I’ve heard a few different sharp guys take the Bills… but I’m still not sold. I’m getting the same vibes I did last year with Cleveland: a team everyone expects to finally take the leap with a young QB and new star WR. Bill isn’t done, friends, and you get nice odds here for simply betting the Patriots once again win one of the NFL’s easiest divisions.
DK: Cam Newton swag
Cam Newton earned a spot on our SPECIAL report. We’re buying into the swag and the idea that he’ll be able to make New England a productive offense. I am fading the Bills hype and think the Patriots can win that division once again, per my bet above. There are other strong contenders on this list, namely Ben Roethlisberger, but Cam is way more fun (and has better odds) than the walking cast.
DK: Dak deserves more!
This one isn’t as “fun,” but it makes sense to me. Everyone seems to agree the Cowboys offense will be one of the best in the league. The Cowboys were second in offensive DVOA in 2019, coming in ahead of the Chiefs (admittedly the Mahomes injury helped), and should be more explosive in 2020 after replacing Randall Cobb with CeeDee Lamb, and Jason Witten with Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys also wisely brought back Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.
Moore’s offense helped Dak throw for over 4,900 yards in 2019… yet DraftKings Sportsbook has his 2020 over/under line set down at just 4,275.5 -- a difference of more than 600 yards.
It certainly doesn’t seem the preseason hype is inflating this bet as much as you might expect, though admittedly Dak’s total is one of the highest on the board, and his passing yard totals from the previous three years were 3,885, 3,324, and 3,667, respectively… but do we think he’ll regress back to these pre-Kellen Moore levels? While OVER bets can be tough, this one feels right.
BONUS PICK: DK: The Barkley fade
Charles Barkley said he guarantees the Browns don’t make the playoffs, so for that reason I’d advise taking the Browns to make the playoffs. I guess they’ll overcome that week 1 beatdown from the Ravens.
