2020: Late Tight End Draft Strategy
Hello world. It’s your old pal Beaver here to fill your ears (or I guess in this case, eyes) with some of that patented molten lava I love to spit. I’ve been in the dam working furiously with my comrades like the generations of beavers that have come before me. I’ve cooked up a group of late round tight end targets for you (some of which are already on fire), but I’m here to dump a big ass bottle of lighter fluid on ‘em n get this party started!!
I think it's important to first note some trends that have led to tight end breakouts in the past. The tight end is arguably the toughest transition from college to the pros of any position in football. This makes it extremely rare for a tight end to break out as a rookie. All the guys on the current Mount Rushmore of tight ends (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, Ertz) broke out in their second season after showing glimpses of greatness as rookies and that's exactly what we’re going to be looking for here. We don't want to be stabbing at guys coming out of nowhere. We want guys that have shown it on the field and maybe just didn't get enough opportunity because of the brutal transition. Oh yeah, and we want ATHLETES. Big time athletes; as athleticism is arguably the most important quality of a breakout tight end. I’ll be referencing various grades on playerprofiler.com, one of the greatest sites ever created, to represent the athleticism of these players.
Chris Herndon
Let’s start with a little kindling before we get too crazy. We don't want the entire dam catching fire just yet. There is obviously some uncertainty surrounding this one with Ryan Griffin in town coming off a strong season and the worst coach in NFL history calling the shots. What I think people are forgetting already is that the Miami product came out guns blazing with an impressive 39/502/4 line in his rookie campaign before losing his entire second season to injury and suspension. But the rapport is there with Sam Darnold who actually loves targeting his tight ends. Throughout 8 games played together in 2019, Sam Darnold made Ryan Griffin the TE6. If Herndon is used as an every down player, and I suspect he will be, there is massive upside here.
Mike GeSICKO
OK, time to start tossin logs on this bad boy. I'm always willing to sacrifice my dinner for a good ol fashion tight end fire. I’ll just get right to it. Mike Gesicki is the most physically gifted specimen we’ve ever seen at the position. Period. HE BROKE THE NFL COMBINE setting new records for just about every imaginable measurable. His player profile is quite honestly a joke. I laughed hysterically upon first sight of it. He ranks in either the 99th or 100th percentile in burst, agility, and catch radius. He broad jumped 10 feet 9 inches and leaped into our hearts with a 42 inch vertical. That's 2 inches higher than the vertical of Lebron James. If you had to find a weakness in his athletic profile, I guess it would be the lumbering 4.5 forty he ran that only ranked in the 95th percentile. I told you it was a joke. This man truly is a sicko and it’s not only his measurables that have me intrigued. He finished the season strong scoring 5 TDs in his last 7 games with Fitzpatrick who is reuniting with Chan Galey, his coach in 2015 where he had the best season of his career with the Jets. There's buzz coming out of Miami about him being used in the slot this year which would only increase his volume and better the chance of a breakout.
Jonnu Smith
Whewww. That one put a little perspiration on the beaver brow. Let's keep it going with my favorite TE target of 2020. It isn't even fair to talk about Smith’s athletic prowess after that clinic of Gesicko stats I just put on, however, Jonnu’s no stiff himself. He posted a 94th percentile burst score, a 93rd percentile SPARQ score, and an 84th percentile speed score. He can move that big body with the best of em and it led to staggering yards after catch production where he ranked 2nd among tight ends last season. In a pregame press conference last year Bill Belichick said, and I quote: “ (He’s) great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I can't imagine anyone better than him after the catch.” Let's be clear. I can’t stand the hoodie but when he says things like that, it’s rare and you better listen. The most impressive aspect of Jonnu Smith’s game is his ability to force missed tackles. I’ve put together a chart to depict just how good the missed tackle maestro really is:
Click on image to enlarge
He forced a missed tackle on 40% of his receptions! That's absurd. He almost beat the giants of the position in roughly one third of the opportunity. This isn’t stat manipulation either. These are two of the best tackle breakers in the league at any position that we’re comparing him to (Kittle’s 20 led the league across all positions). With Delanie Walker now out of the picture in Tennessee, we should expect to see him in a more featured role and if those target and reception numbers start to creep closer toward the likes of Kelce and Kittle… my god he’s going to shatter the all time record for missed tackles in a season en route to a very special 2020 fantasy campaign. Take him in the 14th round and thank me later.
Irv Smith
It’s time to call the fire department. This one’s raging out of control. Everythings lining up for Irv Smith (an FU darling) this season and nobody seems to be taking notice. Stefon Diggs boarded a bus to Buffalo this offseason (not really, he probably flew in his PJs and sipped chardonnay with Lizzo). Kyle Rudolph, despite being incredibly slow and unathletic at this point in his career, caught 6 TDS (T-4th at the position) last season so we know the water’s warm. While we're on the topic of Rudolph, let me just go ahead and say that I think it's safe to write him off for fantasy. Irv Smith is clearly the better pass catching prospect of the two and, according to PFF grades, was a better pass and run blocker than the red nosed reindeer in 2019. It's Irv’s show now. Gary Kubiak has strengthened my stance with comments like the ones he dropped in a press conference a few weeks back: “The biggest thing for me is I just see so much upside. You watch throughout the course of the season we called on Irv more and more I think there’s a big, big upside here. I love Irv as a kid and a competitor. He really enjoys coming to work every day and he’s benefited from sitting right there next to Rudy every day and watching a seasoned pro go about it. So I think there’s a lot more there and Irv is going to give it to us and I got to make sure that I get him in position to do that.”
I expect Kubiak to keep his word and feature Irv this year. Why wouldn't he? He's fast (87th percentile 40 time), he can block, and the dude is basically a receiver playing tight end as evidenced by this video he recently posted on IG or whatever the kids are calling it these days.
Irv Smith became only the sixth tight end in NFL history to surpass 30 receptions and 300 yards receiving by age 21 joining the likes of HOFers Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Aaron Hernandez (well, he might not be a HOFer… but, ehhhh). You get the point. He’s in really good company and I wouldn't be shocked at all if years from now we were mentioning him in the same breath as these legends.
It’s too hot for a beaver out here. I’m off to stiffen my tail and take a deep plunge into some best ball drafts over on Drafters where I’ll be feasting on schools of fish by getting these players in the late rounds. No - beavers don't eat fish but this one does.
