A Breakdown Of Air Yard Leaders 2015-2019
About to get some serious air, BRO.
We are here for air yards. But wait… What are air yards?
Air yards are an extremely scientific indicator of the coach and quarterbacks intention to deliver the ball to a receiver. I’M KIDDING. It really isn’t that scientific, or that complicated, but air yards is an extremely beneficial and innovative metric.
For the best explanation of air yards and their calculation, CLICK, to be directed Josh Hermseyer’s explanation in thorough detail. Hearing it from him is better than hearing it from me.
If you are too tired to, CLICK, air yards can be described as the total yards thrown to a receiver completed and incompleted. As Hermsmeyer explains:
Incompleted air yards are targets that were off the mark, dropped, or broken up by a defender
Completed air yards are receiving yards minus yards after the catch (YAC)
To have an understanding of the intent of a coach and quarterback to deliver the ball to a receiver is an area to gain a competitive fantasy advantage over your opponents because it is not your typical researched metric. You know, like the majority of your standard metrics researched like receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns, insert standard fantasy statistic HERE.
In other terms, coaching and quarterback intent is unrealized production for opportunity that was presented to the receiver. In fantasy sports, we like opportunity and unforeseen areas of value (AOV), which is exactly what air yards captures. In this post, we will breakdown the air yard leaders for the 2015-2019 time period all to crown an air yards king. (Warning that this is a thorough breakdown of the air yard leaders!)
Enough of the explanation. We started this post to crown an air yards king, and a king shall be crowned.
Data Model
All raw data is from airyards.com
One exception is that Fantasy Points (.5 Point PPR) are from pff.com
Data set only includes years 2015-2019
TABLE 1 - Summed Total Rankings
First, the table below is reflective of the summed total leaders for total air yards (complete + incomplete) over the last five years. Please note I’ve broken the three tiers in ranges of 8 for the top 24 ranked players, which are highlighted orange. If orange falls under your color blind spectrum tree, sorry.
Note: All images can be clicked to be enlarged
Highlighted Notes And Insight
This contest could be a three man sword fight for the crown. In the last 5 years Mike Evans, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins have all eclipsed the 10,000 air yard mark, nearly 3,000 more than the 4th most.
I shouldn’t be as surprised as I am to see Brandin Cooks at 6. The guy scoots and has proven to be a repeated producer when not in concussion protocol.
JOHN BROWN TOP 10! Don’t sleep on smokey in the #2 role in Buffalo behind Stefon Diggs who is 20th.
The only TE on the list, Travis Kelce is the best in the league and the Kansas City coaching staff and Quarterbacks have clearly bought into it.
The injured guys: Odell Beckham Jr. missed 13 games in 2017. Allen Robinson cracking the top 7 missing the entire 2017 season after getting injured week 1. AJ Green landed at 17 only having played a total of 51 out of a possible 80 games (64%). Hmmm..
Robby Anderson is the only player on the list that has been in the league less than 5 years.
TABLE 2 - Average Rankings
Excluding Robby Anderson, all players in table 1 have played 5 seasons. We can’t crown a king simply off who played the most seasons as the players that have recently entered the league would not get a fair shake. Averages are an easy and nice metric to look at, which is what the rankings in table 2 are represented of.
Highlighted Notes And Insight
All players in green are players that were in Table 1. Players from Table 1 that are not in table 2: Demaryius Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffrey, Larry Fitzgerald, Stefon Diggs, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Travis Kelce and Robert Woods. These players are not worthy of a crown. Additionally, all players in table 2 not highlighted green are not worthy.
The only player that played 4 seasons on table 1, Robby Anderson, jumps to the top 10 in table 2 averaging 1407 air yards per year. An extremely tight range all four years as well.
Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, and AJ Green made both tables, which deserves an immediate emergency extrapolated analysis. Literally 20 minutes later as I thought I could build a case against the top three, they fall short, but are not far behind in each category.
Mike Evans, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins remain the top candidates. Looking at these front runners, the only negative is for DeAndre Hopkins who has had a wider range of air yard outcomes the last five years.
TABLE 3 - Top 12 Air Yard Finishes
Alright, more data to finish this. Time to look at a breakdown of only top 12 finishes and the fantasy performances of those outcomes in the last five years.
Highlighted Notes And Insight
Unsurprisingly, Evans, Hopkins, and Jones finished top 12 in the air yards category each of the last five years.
Both Evans and Hopkins had their worst year in air yards in 2019. That’s a hit for negative downward trend.
Looking at secondary statistics, Julio Jones has been the best producer of three averaging the most receiving yards and fantasy points.
For other players, note Kenny Golladay has cracked the top 12 in-air yards the last two years. Let the hype continue to build!
TABLE 4 - Count of Top 3 Finishes
Finally something clean and simple with a gap!
Highlighted Notes And Insight
Mike Evans has had one less #1 air yard finish compared to Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. However, he has one more top 3 finish than both Julio and DeAandre.
But... Julio Jones has finished top 3 in air yards the last three years AND was 1st the last two years.
TABLE 5 - 2019 Breakdown
Alright, I think we have what’s needed to draw a conclusion for the King of Air Yards crown, but first, let’s look at the top 24 rankings for 2019.
Highlighted Notes And Insight
In 2019, Beckham Jr. had his worst season since entering the league averaging 10.3 fantasy points per game, which was more than 5 less than all other season. Still, that doesn’t mean Baker and the coaching staff didn’t try to get him the ball as he finished third in Air Yards. Also, teammate Jarvis Landry finished 19th. There is a new coaching staff in Minnesota, which is something to monitor, but you have to love the odds for a bounce back year Beckham Jr.
DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, and Robby Anderson will be on new teams in 2020.
Curtis Samuel finished in the 9 spot, which was over D.J. Moore who finished 12th and had a breakout year. Both players will now be competing with Robby Anderson who has been a top air yard performer the last four years (1409 AY/season, 10th most). Carolina also has a new Quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater and new coach with Ron Rivera out of town. A lot of variables to consider, but my bet is on Robby Anderson to eat into all of Curtis Samuels deep ball opportunities. GO DEEP, ROBBY.
Another mouth to feed in Dallas after top WR prospect CeeDee Lamb was drafted 17th overall in the 2020 draft. No one saw it coming, but because of it, I’d be betting that Michael Gallup will not be in the top 24 next year.
Long-time QB of the Chargers, Philip Rivers, has jumped ships to Indianapolis. There is no telling if either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will have a tendency to favor Mike Williams or Keenan Allen. Clearly though, Offensive Coordinator Shane Stiechen is calling down field bombs for Williams. I witnessed multiple of these incompletions last year when I loaded up on Williams in DFS and then quickly curled up in a ball on the floor, screaming.
Conclusion
Damn it, we came here to crown a King and a King must be crowned.
In summary, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins have dominated Air Yards the last five years.
Without injury, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, and AJ Green would give the three leaders a run for their money, but injuries don’t win crowns.
DeAndre Hopkins has been more inconsistent with a wider range of air yard performances and had his worst worst performance of 1580 air yards in 2019. This inconsistency will not be tolerated.
Over the last five years, Julio Jones has totaled the second most air yards (10,322) and has averaged the second most air yards per season (2,013). He however has finished top three in air yards the last three years and has been first the last two years.
Mike Evans has totaled the most air yards (10,515) and averaged the most air yards per season (2,103). He has finished in the top three in air yards four of the last five years, but only has one first place finish.
What’s most important to take away from this post is again, air yards capture coach and quarterback intent to deliver the ball to a receiver. DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans have destroyed this metric.
Because nothing makes my ears redder than a Mike Evans vs. Chris Godwin debate with the Beaver...by controversial decision, THE KING IS…
JULIO JONES!
FANTASY GODS, PLEASE ALLOW CHRIS GODWIN TO BLESS JULIO TO A THREE PEAT AIR YARD CROWN.
AMEN.
