2022 Favorite Best Ball Draft Targets Part 2
gm, Australia.
To some drafters, Tampa Bay running back Leonard Fournette is a polarizing draft selection this year in fantasy football.
Should you swipe right or click draft?
This is why Leonard Fournette is a match in fantasy (really bad tinder joke).
Leonard Fournette - ADP 23.2 - RB11
Let’s rewind history before Leonard Fournette was not on one of the best offenses in the NFL to when he played for the Jacksonville Jaguars (ew)
Uncle Len was drafted in 2017 and finished the season as RB8 as a Rookie. He did so with 22 receptions. He had 10 total touchdowns
In 2018, Fournette was priced as a first round fantasy pick. He ended up getting injured and missed half the season, finishing as RB40. However, Fournette averaged 13.7 ppg which was T-13th most. Fournette had 14 more receptions in half the games in 2018 compared to 2017; which should had been noted as a trend of seeing more involvement in the pass game. Fournette totaled 6 touchdowns in 8 games, a 12 touchdown season extrapolation if he had played a full season and maintained his average production
After concerns of injury risk, Fournette was priced as a second round pick in 2020 and could even be seen slipping to the third round. Lenny had a massive bounce back season finishing as RB9; the trends of seeing increased targets in 2018 trickled into 2019 as he totaled 76 receptions, 5th most in league for the RB position. Lenny finished the season with 4 total touchdowns
Fournette then had a falling out with the Jacksonville Jaguars organization, which created uncertainty to his fantasy outlook when he was released. He was then later signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A look at his time in Tampa Bay
2020 was Uncle Lenny’s first year in Tampa Bay (which was also Tom Brady’s first year). He was primarily utilized as the RB2 in the offense behind Ronald Jones. Jones finished RB16 on double the touches compared to Fournette
In 2020 as Fournette was utilized as the RB2 on the team throughout the season, Tampa Bay’s playoff Super Bowl run was a different case. Uncle Lenny emerged as the clear RB1 on the team totaling the below numbers:
Wild Card: 19 rush attempts - 93 rush yards -1 rush TD / 4 receptions-39 receiving yards
Divisional: 17 rush attempts - 63 rush yards / 5 receptions - 44 receiving yards -1 receiving TD
Conference: 12 rush attempts - 55 rush yards - 1 rush TD / 5 receptions -19 yards
Super Bowl: 16 receptions - 89 rush yards -1 rush TD / 4 receptions - 46 receiving yards
After his Super Bowl emergence, the market was uncertain to what his role would be in 2021. His ADP was one of a handful of players that only fell from around the time Puppy I launched to end of draft season - he fell 40 ADP spots - nearly four entire rounds!
Tampa Bay performance continued..
After his price only fell in 2021, Fournette emerged as one of the highest advancing players in Underdog best ball tournaments. He beat his RB41 price tag by 34 positional points as he finished 2021 RB7. Fournette was the clear workhorse RB1 on the team totaling 180 carries, 10 total TDs and 69 (yes - 69) receptions, which was the 3rd most receptions in the league for RBs
Summary & Final Notes For Fournette in Fantasy
Fournette was a near top 12 producing RB on a bottom half offense in the league during his time in Jacksonville (2017-RB8, 2018 - T-13th PPG - 2019-RB9)
There is speculative concern that rookie RB Rachaad White could eat into Fournette’s receiving volume. In .5 PPR if applying a 50% reduction to Lenny’s 2021 receiving points scored, he would have finished 2021 overall as RB20
50% regression is an extreme example and I don’t think that we see that type of regression as Fournette is a proven receiving running back out of the backfield (2019 - 72 receptions, 2021 - 69 receptions)
In .5 PPR TDs are king, and no matter what I expect Fournette to have ample TD opportunity in 2022. Fournette is proven around the redzone having totaled 10 touchdowns in 2 seasons (2017, 2021), and having been on pace for 12 TDs (2019) before getting hurt. That is a 3/5 season double digit TD pace
Tampa Bay was the second best offense in the league in 2021 based off total points scored (511 points scored) second to Dallas (530 points scored)
Tampa Bay is expected to be a good team again in 2021; the Buccaneers have the second best odds to win the Super Bowl on Draftkings (+700)
Follow the bag? Leonard Fournette just signed a three year $21MM contract
But Leonard Fournette is OLD! No, he just has a beard and looks seasoned. Uncle Lenny is only 27!!!
Leonard Fournette has never been a market darling (i.e. ADP fall in 2021 after Super Bowl run performance). While the historical reasons why to draft Lenny in my opinion far outweigh the reason why not to draft him (in my opinion), it always feels as if the market pry’s to find reasons as why not to draft him (i.e. “FAT LENNY” - Example A, Example B, Example C, Example D, etc.)
Fournette has been a proven fantasy producer on multiple teams and is currently on a top offense in the league in which he will utilized as the RB1 on the team in 2021. In 2022 Lenny will have plenty of opportunity to score fantasy points, most importantly touchdowns for the Tampa Bay offense. I didn’t even mention up to this point that a) Rob Gronkowski retiring and b) Chris Godwin likely to miss 4+ weeks due to an ACL injury, only increases the proabability that Lenny is more utilized in the offense in 2022.
I am more than fine with his price tag: ADP 23.3 - RD2-3 Turn - RB11 and will be mixing him in plenty on my best ball teams.
When you’re on the clock and indecisive about swiping right on Lenny, don’t think of the negative market sentiment that always surrounds him as why not to draft him, think of the reasons why you should, & swipe right. g2g
