Be Cautious Of Using Uploaded Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball is not just a game of drafting the best players each year. Best ball fantasy fantasy football is about drafting the best players at their market price tag, in order to maximize the total return on investment (ROI) for each player drafted, with a goal to score the most points possible when you draft a fantasy team.
There are many sites that have best ball rankings of players that could be vastly different than average draft position (ADP). Within those rankings, if a player is ranked significantly higher than ADP, and you then draft that player at that ranked position, chances are you are minimizing the total points scored for that team. This is one of the most basic best ball drafting strategies.
Best Ball Rankings 2022 Example
For example, I really like Terry McLaurin in 2022 (fantasy gods please bless Terry with a contract extension - Amen). Terry McLaurin is currently priced in the back half of the 4th round at ADP 44.6, WR21. I believe that #Terry has top 10 WR upside in 2021, but if I uploaded rankings with #Terry as WR10, he would be priced between Tyreek Hill (current 20.8 ADP - WR9) and Tee Higgins (current ADP 22.7-WR10), which would be a 2nd round price tag, nearly two rounds higher than McLaurin’s current ADP.
The issue with the above example:
By drafting Terry in the 2nd round of a best ball draft, I have minimized the potential room for a positive ROI, as I drafted Terry at what I believe to be his near ceiling outcome of WR10
By drafting Terry McLaurin closer to his ceiling outcome, the chances are more likely than not that the construction of my team is at an overall disadvantage compared to the field of teams that drafted #Terry at his 4th round price tag. Why?
Best ball teams that drafted #Terry in the 4th round received a +11 positional ROI (WR21-ADP vs. WR10 outcome)
At high draft capital prices, we must assume that the market is generally correct in pricing players. By drafting Terry McLaurin in the 2nd round, it was at the opportunity cost of selecting a player currently priced at the end of 2nd round (i.e. Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara, Tee Higgins, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Nick Chubb).
That opportunity cost is too high, as the players priced at the end of the 2nd round are priced higher than the players in the 4th round because these players are overall better fantasy players than the group of players drafted in the 4th round. Another way of saying it, a combination of Terry in the 2nd round with a player that typically gets drafted in the 4th round is in likeliness overall not as good as the combination of a player currently being drafted in the 2nd round plus Terry in the 4th round.
Can I Use Rankings In Best Ball?
When drafting players in best ball we need to be thinking: at what opportunity cost? If rankings are significantly higher than ADP on your best ball platform, the chances are that the opportunity cost of drafting a player significantly early is too high a cost for the overall construction of your team. This will make it harder to win in fantasy football best ball leagues.
I recommend:
If drafting limited volume, do not break ADP significantly (+10 picks - general rule) for players priced in the first 6 rounds.
If drafting limited volume, in later rounds (11 to 18) I am more okay to break ADP to get your guys if you have #HotTaeks.
Check out @Hayden Winks article with data to support why drafters shouldn’t break ADP.
If you decide to upload rankings and are higher on a player than the market, rank that player 4 to 5 spots ahead of ADP to be higher than the market.
If you don’t upload rankings and want to reference a set of rankings while you draft, check out both my friends @Tom Strachan and @James Brimacombe rankings. Both Tom and James are credible grinders in the best ball draft streets.
Best Ball ADP Analysis
A big reason why we (myself, @Josh, #beaver) don’t upload best ball rankings is because we are in tune with all ADP movement of players ALL THE TIME (not so much beaver, but still…). It’s a primary focus of the FantasyUnleashd Podcast. We know where players are being drafted, who is falling and who is rising, and based on the ADP movements we then adjust our strategy for players we are buying or fading at price, while maintaining conviction on offensive situations as a whole.
We have a very informative weekly market update podcast that covers ADP shifts of players and offensive situations; I would be amiss to not PuMp ThE HyPe of our ADP market weekly podcast, which you can listen to on Spotify, Apple and anywhere else you listen to podcasts. FantasyUnleashd no E before the D, because quite frankly, absolutely no reason at all.
Be cautious of drafting players too high ahead of ADP when using rankings in best ball drafts. See you drafting on @UnderdogFantasy!
