2022 Best Ball ‘Buy The Dip’ Candidates
Sometimes the best indicators for the future are results of the past.
Each year proven fantasy football players have disappointing fantasy seasons, which causes their ADP to fall the following season. Some of these players then turn into some of the best returns on invesment as they crush their reduced price ADP (i.e. Mark Andrews in 2021).
The 20 players listed in this post are all players whose 2022 ADP has fallen compared to 2021. Additionally, all players on this list have historically, at one point or another, well outperformed their current price tags. These are players that I believe are worth buy the dip consideration in 2022 best ball.
The below players are listed according to numerical ADP. The ADP is specific to Underdog Fantasy standard roster settings drafts (1 QB - 2 RB - 3 WR -1 TE - 1 Flex - 12 Bench), not superflex.
Darren Waller - TE - Las Vegas Raiders
2021 ADP: 20.4 - Round 2 - TE2
2022 ADP: 33.6 - Round 3 - TE4
Waller missed six games in 2022, but still had a disappointing points per game result, finishing 7th at 9.6 PPG. Let’s just not forget that in 2019 he finished TE3 and 2020 TE2. A bounce back season could be in store for Waller, especially with new head coach Josh McDaniel’s at the helm, whose offensive scheme has historically highly involved tight ends in New England (i.e. Rob Gronkowski). Sentiment on Waller has been rising as he was being drafted in the mid 4th round in February.
Aaron Jones - RB - Green Bay Packers
2021 ADP: 9.3 - Round 1 - RB6
2022 ADP: 40.8 - Round 4 - RB15
Jones finished 2019 RB2, had a 3rd round price tag in 2020, finished 2020 RB5, had a first round price tag in 2021, to then finish 2021 RB12. Jones ADP might not rise due to running back by committee sentiment (AJ Dillon’s hamstrings, quads, glutes, lower body in general), but he’s been as steady of producer as they come at RB. Additionally, with Aaron Rodgers return to Green Bay, points should not be hard to come by in 2022.
Robert Woods - WR - Los Angeles Rams
2021 ADP: 33.9 - Round 3 - WR14
2022 ADP: 79.9 - Round 7 - WR39
Bobby Trees missed half the season last year due to a season-ending ACL injury. In his 9 games played, Woods finished 2021 as WR19 in points per game (12.7 PPG). Rewinding history, overall he finished 2018 as WR10, 2019 WR17, and 2020 WR13. Return from injury, Cooper Kupp’s WR1 season, and WR Odell Beckham’s potential return to LA have him priced down, but I expect his ADP to rise as the season nears. Buy Bobby Trees’ consistency.
Allen Robinson - WR - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 29.5 - Round 3 - WR12
2022 ADP: 88.6 - Round 9 - WR43
Prior to Robinson’s abysmal 2021 finish as WR85 (5 games missed), he finished 2019 WR11 and 2020 WR12. Robinson has carried a consistent top 4 round price tag over years past and can now be purchased in the 9th round. A free agent in 2022, Robinson could land in an offensive situation that could drive his price up and more than pay in value returned as he has seen top 12 wide receiver territory before.
Miles Sanders - RB - Philadelphia Eagles
2021 ADP: 51.5 - Round 5 - RB20
2022 ADP: 102.4 - Round 9 - RB35
As a rookie, Sanders finished 2019 as RB15 and then was priced as a 1st round pick in 2020. In 2020, Sanders missed his ADP price return and finished RB23. Last season, Sanders missed 5 games and finished RB42 in points per game (8.7 PPG), again missing positive return on investment. I see a glimmer of positivity that Sanders could be due for positive touchdown regression as he had zero touchdowns in 2021. Additionally, Philadelphia shifted towards a run heavy offense the second half of the season. Sanders averaged 94 yards per game in the four games he saw 15 or more carries.
Corey Davis - WR - New York Jets
2021 ADP: 75.6 - Round 7 - WR36
2022 ADP: 115.3 - Round 10 - WR51
In 2020 Davis finished WR31 and then in 2021 was priced as the number one wide receiver on his new team, the New York Jets. On a points per game basis, Davis didn’t miss his 2021 ADP price tag of WR 36 much, as he finished WR40 (9.8 PPG). Currently priced as WR51, I still think he could be the number one redzone threat on the Jets with double digit touchdown upside potential in QB Zach Wilson’s 2022 sophomore campaign. Davis had four touchdowns in 9 games in 2021.
Kenny Golladay - WR - New York Giants
2021 ADP: 82.9 - Round 7 - WR39
2022 ADP: 119 - Round 10 - WR53
2019 finished WR6 - 2020 3rd round - 2020 played 5 games - finished WR84 in 14 games, 0 TDs
The new face in a new place hype of 2021 did not end well for Golladay in New York last year. Kenny G. finished WR84, which was his worst fantasy season since being drafted. Right now though his price tag of reflective of that performance as the market has started to forget about his 2019 finish as WR6, which then lead to an early third round price tag in 2020 (Golladay only played 5 games in 2020). Another leading candidate for positive touchdown regression with zero touchdowns in 2021, more thoughts can be found on Golladay in my latest ADP Market Update.
DJ Chark - WR - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 101.1 - Round 9 - WR50
2022 ADP: 119 - Round 10 - WR53
Remember 2020 when DJ Chark carried a 5th round price tag and it was supposed to be Chark Szn? I do - mostly because I was highly invested after he showed big play ability in 2019 when he finished WR16. 2020 didn’t end as planned as he finished WR49, and then 2021 was a missed bounce back opportunity as only played 2.5 games due to a season ending fractured ankle. Still, in 2021 he finished WR37 in points-per-game (10.3 PPG). Chark is free agent and bet on talent return to top 24 WR production.
William Fuller V - WR - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 90 - Round 8 - WR43
2022 ADP: 124.6 - Round 11 - WR58
We all know the story of Will Fuller. The guy who, IF he stays healthy, can produce at an elite level. Fuller is one year removed from the best year of his career when he finished 2020 WR6 in points per game (14.8 PPG). In 2022, he is priced near WR60 because he played 1.5 games last year, and also because Jaylen Waddle is an early off-season Twitter darling (rightfully so). Time will tell if Fuller re-signs with the Dolphins, or if he lands elsewhere. Regardless, Fuller has the weekly ceiling we love in best ball.
Jarvis Landry - WR - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 98.6 - Round 9 - WR49
2022 ADP: 131.4 - Round 11 - WR60
After being released by the Cleveland Browns, Landry is another free agent on the list that will make his way to a new team in 2022 (Maybe the Bills or Chiefs?). Between 2014 to 2019, Landry finished each season as a top 24 WR. Now after finishing 2020 as WR36 and 2021 as WR56 (missed 5 games), Landy is priced the lowest he has been in his career. Still under 30 years old, Landry has the potential to pay off a WR60 price tag.
Ryan Tannehill - QB - Tennessee Titans
2021 ADP: 108.8 - Round 10 - QB11
2022 ADP: 131.9 - Round 11 - QB18
In the last two years with the Titans, Tannehill has finished QB7 in 2020 and QB12 in 2021. In 2021 when he finished QB12, WR AJ Brown missed four games, WR Julio Jones missed 7 games, RB Derrick Henry missed 10 games. Tannehill should be in a better offensive situation in 2022 and is priced as the QB18. Boring consistency.
James Robinson - RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 ADP: 35.8 - Round 3 - RB16
2022 ADP: 140.8 - Round 12 - RB42
The sentiment baked into Robinson’s dip of ADP is RB Travis Etienne’s return from injury and the Achilles tear Robinson sustained in week 16. In 2020 Robinson finished RB7, and in 2021 he finished RB24 (in 14 games). Robinson will be in his third year and is a strong selection based off previous production and price. He will however need a Cam Akers type recovery timeline to be ready for the season. There is a lot of risk buying Robinson this early in the offseason. I may nibble at most as his ADP falls.
Curtis Samuel - WR - Washington Commanders
2021 ADP: 109.3 - Round 10 - WR55
2022 ADP: 140.9 - Round 12 - WR64
Samuel was pretty much just an offensive decoy in his five games played in 2021 as he only saw 9 targets in a season essentially lost to injury. Currently priced as WR64, Curtis finished 2019 WR36 and 2020 WR25. 2022 will be his true Washington Commanders debut.
Matt Ryan - QB - Atlanta Falcons
2021 ADP: 145 - Round 13 - QB17
2022 ADP: 166.2 - Round 14 - QB23
In 2021 Ryan finished QB20, which was his worst QB finish since entering the league in 2008. Matt Ryan will be 37 years old this year and could be on the downturn in his career, or Ryan could bounce back. Lack of offensive weapons in Atlanta is a concern, but their have been rumors he could be traded.
Robby Anderson - WR - Carolina Panthers
2021 ADP: 63.5 - Round 6 - WR29
2022 ADP: 176.6 - Round 14 - WR73
The market is down on big play Robby after what was a disappointing 2021 finish of WR50 compared to his 2021 WR24 price tag. Anderson had his best year of his career in 2020 finishing as WR24 and just one year removed from that performance, there are few wide receivers in his price range that have that level of proven production. Anderson also finished 2018 WR36 and 2019 WR39. He is currently priced at 176.6 ADP, down over 100 spots from his 63.5 2021 price.
Raheem Mostert - RB - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 73.8 - Round 7 - RB29
2022 ADP: 182.8 - Round 16 - RB54
In 2019 Mostert finished RB24 to then receive a round 6 price in 2020. In 2020, Mostert missed 8 games, but finished RB27 in PPG. Mostert missed the entire 2021 season due to chipped cartilage in his knee. Health concerns, 49ers 2021 rookie RB emergence of Elijah Mitchell, and 2022 free agency uncertainty have Mostert priced as RB54. If he lands in an offense with opportunity, even in a committee, Mostert’s 4.34 big play ability can make him best ball viable… that is, if he still has the wheels.
Sterling Shephard - WR - New York Giants
2021 ADP: 151.1 - Round 13 - WR70
2022 ADP: 189.9 - Round 16 - WR85
In 2022, Shephard is being priced as the third wide receiver in the Giants offense behind both Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay. Although the longest active rostered Giants player of seven years may not be exciting, he can produce past his price. In 10 games in 2019, Shephard finished WR30 in points per game (11.3 PPG), he played 12 games in 2020 and finished WR36 in points per game (10.8 PPG), and in 2021 Shephard played 7 games and finished WR50 in points per game (8.5 PPG). Shephard is 29 years old and struggles to stay on the field, but when he does play, he has produced past a WR85 price point.
Kenyan Drake - RB - Las Vegas Raiders
2021 ADP: 127 - Round 11 - RB40
2022 ADP: 202.9 - Round 17 - RB58
Prior to landing in Las Vegas in 2022, Drake finished 2019 as RB16 to then be priced as a 3rd round pick in 2020, to then finish 2020 RB14. In 12 games in his first year in Las Vegas, Drake played as the RB2 behind teammate Josh Jacobs and finished RB57 overall and RB52 in points per game (7.3 PPG). Drake is a very capable back-up RB fantasy producer and could even potentially carve out a James White receiving type role in Josh McDaniel’s offense.
Evan Engram - TE - Free Agent
2021 ADP: 165.5 - Round 14 - TE18
2022 ADP: 173.9 - Round 15 - TE21
Engram has elite athleticism , which the NFL has seen glimpses of his talent both his rookie year in 2017 when he finished TE5 and in 2018 when he finished TE12 (in 11 games). In 2021 Engram finished TE23, the worst of his career, which is reflective of his 2022 round 15 price tag. Full transparency, I am an Engram truther and am willing to bet again on his athleticism in 2022. I think he is currently priced at his floor.
Davis Mills - Sex Specimen & QB - Houston Texans
2021 ADP: 216 - Round 18 - QB42
2022 ADP: 221.4 - Round 19 - QB30
I guess Mills isn’t a buy the dip candidate based off his 2021 rookie ADP or finishing performance. I must have been blinded by the value of his round 19 QB30 price tag #DavisMillsSzn
More best ball content coming soon. g2g, but remember…
