2021 Best Ball Rookie ADP - Market Movement
How does rookie ADP shift as the season approaches? It is no secret that ADP of rookie players could dramatically rise or fall based on the team that drafts them in the NFL Draft, and the offensive opportunity that team may present.
Instead of looking at movement pre-to-post NFL Draft (reactionary to a sole event), the below is a simple comparison of how rookie ADP moved with an ADP starting point of one month after the NFL Draft.
The data compares rookies ADP for a three month time period, June 9th to September 9th, and excludes rookies with an ADP of 215 or 216 (the last two picks of the best ball draft), on both dates of June 9th and September 9th. The ADP is specific to Underdog.
Quarterback
Four of five (or 80%) of quarterbacks ADP rose. Justin Fields nearly moved up one round, while Mac Jones was the largest mover at nearly three rounds. Jones ADP really rose when the New England Patriots released Cam Newton, declaring Jones their starter week 1.
Running Back
The running back positions ADP moves were relatively flat, but overall five of six (or 85%) of running backs ADP rose. Rhamondre Stevenson’s ADP took off like a rocket ship after his dominant pre-season performances that earned him pre-season DFS first team honors. Michael Carter’s ADP slowly fell due to running back committee sentiment.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver was a different story than both quarterback and running back positions; 10 of 14 (or 71%) of the wide receivers saw a rising or falling move of double digits, seven of which saw a move great than two rounds. It is worth nothing that Rashod Bateman’s ADP fell due to injury. Overall, 9 of 14 (or 64%) of wide receivers ADP rose.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth were the only rookie tight ends drafted on June 9th. Both Pitts and Freirmuth’s ADPs rose.
Summary
For all positions, 20 of 27 (or 74%) of rookie players from the 2021 sample ADP rose, while 7 of 27 (or 26%) fell.
ADP did not significantly move overall for the quarterback and running back positions, as only two players from each position moved more than one round up, or down. It could be said that the pricing is sticky for these positions, meaning there is not a massive edge to gain in ADP as the market prices the players early, and then “sticks” to the price up to the season.
When drafting rookie wide receivers, it could be inferred that their is greater risk-reward as the positional group overall made big rising moves, however, there were equal moves to the downside. Pricing is not as sticky for the wide receiver position when comparing to the quarterback and running back positions. The same could be said for tight end, however, with only two tight ends in the sample, few inferred conclusions can be drawn.
Overall, it may be beneficial to draft rookies early as 74% of rookies ADP rose. However, be mindful that not all rookies are created equal and their is risk to the downside.
I personally will be spreading out my exposure to rookie wide receivers, not getting too heavy (15 - 20%) into any sole player in an attempt to overall net benefit from what should be, rising ADP.
