A.J. Green: Fantasy Outlook
Pouring one out for the lost homie, Adriel Jeremiah Green.
Many are prepared to finalize the death of his fantasy relevance, burying his ADP deep to the middle rounds.
I’ve been doing some digging on the previous 1st round fantasy selection… Digging the dirt that my opponents have put on his corpse to end his fantasy existence.
Finally, at last… It took until the 6th round for me to find him. I brushed the dirt off his face to find him alive, gasping for air, prepared to be reborn a WR1.
I understand it is easy to forget. I also understand that there is reason to fear those that are reborn. The uncertainty of not knowing if they will be the same as they once were... However, we cannot fear uncertainty, and we cannot fear risk of injury alone.
Maybe last year you did fear injury and avoided those that were hurt the year before:
Cooper Kupp who was coming off an ACL tear? He ended as the #4 wide receiver on the year.
Injury riddled Dalvin Cook who had an ACL tear in 2017 and recurring hamstring issues in 2018? He finished as the #5 running back on the year.
Leonard Fournette who had hamstring issues all 2018? He ended the season as the #9 running back on the year.
You can even flip the script and look at a “non-injury” player like Drew Brees:
Prior to the 2019 season, Brees had not missed more than one game in a season since 2003. He ended up having a thumb injury that cost him missing 5 games.
Injuries can happen to anyone, at any time, and if you skip on every player that has an injury history, you could be missing out a nice value.
A.J. GREEN IS THAT TYPE OF VALUE
Before we jump to the positives, let’s take a look at his recent history as it is still worth understanding (even though I really don’t care about it):
2019 he missed the entire season with torn ligaments in his ankle
2018 he missed 7 games due to a big toe sprain. Nothing makes me want to crumple a piece of paper than reading that a player is missing time because of a toe
2016 he suffered a grade 3 torn hamstring and missed 6 games
Now for the positives!
1. Rest And Recovery
There were reports that Green could have returned at the end of last year, but instead the Bengals elected to put him on IR. That really was salt in the wound for any fantasy manager that held onto him last year occupying one of their limited roster spots. On the bright side, rest means recovery. It was a protective measure by the staff to not risk re-injury. Green is healthy ready for the 2020 season. He actually was completely done with rehab in December, 2019.
2. Post-Season Involvement
During the COVID-19 lockdown, Green was virtually involved with the team taking on the leadership role of the team and even said he was anxious to get training with Joe Burrow. I love veteran superstars that have a “we” approach vs. the “me” approach.
3. Signs $18 Million Dollar Franchise Tag Tender
There was speculation earlier this year that Green might not report to camp and would holdout unless he got a new deal. On July 17 Green signed an $18 million dollar deal. Zac Taylor said after the deal was made, “A.J. is one of the best receivers in the NFL.” The franchise paid him, and then the coach praised him.
4. There’s A New QB In Town
Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow threw 60 touchdowns in his final season at LSU. That’s the most in FBS history. He also won the FBS title beating the team that rolled The Tide that rolls. I’m digging the vibe Beaver is setting by planting a flag on Burrow. Cincinnati really could be a party where all your dreams of fun come true.
5. AJ Green’s Previous Production
Lastly, let’s take a look back at AJ Green’s production. We know AJ Green missed time in 2016 and 2018, so let’s focus on 2015 and 2017. Both years he finished as a WR1 (top 12) in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points (.5 PPR).
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For fun, I extrapolated his per game averages for each metric for the years he got injured. Looking at this ‘if he did not get injured’ scenario, he would have finished as a WR1 across all categories (except receptions in 2018 and touchdowns in 2016).
Final Thoughts
I don’t think there is a better wide receiver being drafted after round 5 with the potential to be a top 5 wide receiver in 2020. The $18 million deal. Coach praise. Affordable ADP. I am quickly turning bullish.
For those that have buried AJ Green fantasy relevancy, I am letting you know that he has been found, and prepared to be reborn a WR1.
Keep your glasses full, HOMIES.
