Beaver’s 2020 Fantasy Flag Plants: Quarterbacks
In this riveting four part saga I will be releasing my 2020 flag plants at each position. These are guys that I’m taking a stand on this season. I will select one player from each part of the draft: early, middle, and late.
It is crucial to remember what we're targeting at each stage. For quarterbacks going early, we are looking for guys with the type of upside to finish as the top fantasy option at the position. In the middle rounds, we want players with the potential to be top five at the position.
If we decide to punt a position, we want to go with a guy that we think will finish as a QB1 (top 12 quarterback) or at least get us off to a hot start. Knowing the early season schedule is paramount when taking this route. If we choose someone with a soft opening schedule and they don’t pop, we know that we can cut ties at little cost and use the open roster spot to stream the position.
Early Rounds: Kyler Murray (~ADP 46, QB4)
As a team, the Cardinals experienced some serious growing pains under Cliff Kingsbury in his NFL coaching debut. They struggled to sustain drives (32nd in time of possession), punch it in (27th in red zone TD conversion), and protect the quarterback (5th most sacks allowed per game). Yet, amidst all of the adversity, Kyler Murray was quietly able to net a QB7 fantasy finish en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. QB7 is a very respectable finish for a rookie, but it could have been much higher…
Murray had a TD rate of only 3.7% which was the 5th lowest of all quarterbacks in 2019. TD rate can be a volatile stat. Every year we see stud quarterbacks post low TD rates and vice versa. I believe in his second year we could see Kyler Murray’s touchdown rate at least move closer to the league average, with a potential jump into the top tier also in the cards thank to the addition of Deandre Hopkins.
If Murray would have just been average in this category in comparison to the other QB1s (5.2%) he would have had 8 more passing TDs making him a top 5 fantasy quarterback. However, when drafting the third or fourth QB off the board, you're not taking them to be a top 5 guy. You’re taking them to be a league winner, and I think Kyler could be just that. He rushed for 544 yards (2nd most among QBs) while passing for 3,722 yard and a 64% completion rate (each ranked 15th at the position).
I expect him to take these already-above-average passing numbers to the next level in year two under Kingsbury. The Cards used their second draft pick on OT Josh Jones, a 6’7 bodyguard out of Houston that should improve their offensive line and relieve some of that pressure.
Newly acquired Kenyan Drake is one of the league's best pass catching RBs in the prime of his career. Oh ya, and they also added DeAndre Hopkins who’s been known to fuck around and make plays. Never hurts to upgrade your 36-year-old number one WR to the best receiver on the planet.
There have only been 2 quarterbacks in NFL history to rush the ball 100 times and throw it 500 times in the same season. The expected increase in offensive plays, time of possession, and overall offensive success for the Cardinals in 2020 is more than enough for me to project Murray to become the third (93 and 542 last year) QB in history to accomplish the feat. I currently have him ranked as my QB3 but I would not be the least bit surprised if Kyler made it the 8th year in a row that we see a new QB1.
Middle Rounds: Josh Allen (~ADP 69, QB7)
If you liked the case I built for Kyler, but can’t get on board with spending that type of draft capital on a quarterback, then Josh Allen could be your man. The situation is eerily similar: Dual-threat QB with positive regression coming that has QB1 upside if Patty and the Unicorn are injured in a hot air balloon accident on the way to the ESPYs (I assume they hang out together).
Like Kyler, Allen also received an early Christmas present in the form of an all world receiver when the Bills signed Stefon Diggs this offseason. The addition of Diggs will undoubtedly help elevate the passing game of Allen, who’s never had a true #1 receiver. Diggs is an absolute technician. In my opinion, he's the best route runner the league has to offer. He surgically dissects opposing defenses with his attention to detail. What more could a young quarterback struggling with accuracy ask for?
However, it’s not only the addition of Stef that leads me to think positive regression is on the horizon. It’s the fact that he can't really get any worse in the passing department. In 2019 Josh finished 23rd in passing yards and touchdowns (3,089 and 20) and was DEAD LAST in completion percentage (58.8%.) He's never going to post impressive accuracy numbers due to his willingness to take an absurd amount of deep shots and that's OK because we love that for fantasy (we played Jameis 17 times last year on DraftKings). There's no where to go but up for Allen as a passer and we’ve actually already seen year-over-year improvement from him. He posted a 67.9 passer rating as a rookie then followed it up with a 17.4 increase finishing his sophomore campaign at 85.3.
The key takeaway here is that the young quarterback is getting better by the day. He just needs to improve as a passer and the addition of a stud wideout only strengthens the likelihood of it hitting (sound familiar?) And let me tell you, if it hits, it's going to hit HARD.
The Stallion was already one of the league's best ball carriers at the position leading all QBs in rushing touchdowns since he entered the league with 17. He trails only Lamar Jackson, who's not even human, in rushing yards over that span. If another year under his belt and a shiny new toy is enough to push Allen’s passing prowess to an average level, we’re going to have a very SPECIAL fantasy player on our hands.
Late Rounds: Jimmy Garoppolo (~ADP 130, QB20)
Jimmy Garoppolo is a quality NFL quarterback. His career record is 21-5. Last season he was 8th in passer rating while finishing 3rd in yards per attempt. However, it’s not his skillset that intrigues me for fantasy this year. This one comes down to two things: opportunity and early season schedule. Opportunity consists of a number of variables surrounding a player that equates to their overall fantasy environment. Coaching, offensive line play, and weaponry are a few things that are vital for fantasy success at the quarterback position.
Life is good for Jimmy G. He's the best-looking man in the league, he probably goes home every night to his smokin’ hot wife and beautiful, healthy children, then the next day wakes up, combs his hair, and goes to work where he gets to play a sport in which he's protected by arguably the best offensive line in the game, surrounded by some of the best playmakers in the league, and led by a coaching savant that knows exactly how to get them the ball in space. The handsome devil’s living in one of the most fantasy-friendly environments in all of football.
He's armed with a plethora of after-the-catch monsters. He's got PFF’s overall #1 rated player at tight end who led the league in missed tackles forced by a WR/TE last season. You know who was #2 on that list? RACR standout Deebo Samuel who plays like he's starving and there's a sandwich on the line. His violent running style is one of my favorite things to watch each sunday. There's been a few times where I’ve even dreamt about it the night before. He's expected to miss some time with a lisfranc injury but no worries, Jimmy’s got other options in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
The front office hooked him up with a first rounder that led college football in yards after contact. They traded up from 31 to 25 to make sure they got Brandon Aiyuk in one of the deepest wide receiver drafts we’ve seen in a long time.
Let’s not forget Jalen Hurd either who played running back, slot receiver, and even took snaps at tight end in college. He looked great in the preseason (and won me a ton of money because I’m a degenerate that plays preseason DFS) before suffering a season ending back injury.
“Jimmy GQ” will watch his pass catchers run wild as he effortlessly accumulates fantasy points in 2020. All he has to do is drop back under zero duress and comfortably throw the ball to these wide open targets, and trust me, they'll be WIDE open.
Garoppolo draws one the softest opening schedules for a quarterback in the league with bouts against the Cardinals, Giants, Jets, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams to start the season and doesn't have a bye until week 11. He’ll either come out guns blazin’ and be one of the top quarterbacks for fantasy through the first six weeks or he’ll continue to soil this golden opportunity with average production in which case we can drop him at little to no cost. Sign me up.
Honorable Mentions
Matt Stafford (~ADP 106, QB13) - QB2 before the injury last season and now has a fully evolved, true number one in Kenny G. The addition of one of college football's best pass catching running backs will also help to take this offense to the next level through the air.
Ben Roethlisberger (~ADP 128, QB17) - One year removed from throwing for over 5,000 yards and finishing as the QB2 in his last full season.
Joe Burrow (~ADP 135, QB18) - my favorite value at the position this year. Checkout my article on why Joe Burrow will finish as a top ten quarterback this year.
Cam Newton (~ADP 171, QB21) - This ADP is a joke in comparison to the potential upside for Cam in this Patriots offense. I suggest you eat him up now before the industry wises up on this no brainer. An FU darling that I suspect will be heavily spotlighted in the coming weeks…
Final note: I want to be clear that this group of honorable mentions, along with Jimmy G is the sweet spot for QB this year. We always try to take a late round QB approach, but I wanted to offer some options at different levels of the draft in the article.
