An Exception To The Draft A QB Late Strategy
CASH HERE and I HAVE DATA.
To get straight to the point, I am on team draft Lamar Jackson in all fantasy draft formats. Why you ask? Please see below.
Reason 1: Rushing Equity
I and everyone who has two eyes, isn’t blind, and watches football knows that Lamar Jackson is a SPECIAL talent. In a one-year time period he organized the tools in the toolbox and became one of the league’s most accurate gunners, slinging a league-best 36 touchdowns in 2019. Plus, he’s lightning on the ground, wowing viewers with spins and step-backs that you only had before seen while getting stunted in Madden. That unique combination of skills has not only put him in the discussion for best quarterback in the league, but also earned him the nickname ‘The Unicorn’ within the fantasy community.
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YES - Jackson is a QB on the depth chart and week one last year he reminded everyone of that when he threw for 5 touchdowns against a miserable Miami defense. Remember in his post-game press conference when he sarcastically joked, “Not bad for a running back” to the media?
The point here is that over the last several years it has been an increasingly popular strategy to not draft quarterbacks early and wait until the later rounds. Why pull the trigger on a quarterback early when the opportunity cost is missing out on a RB1/WR1/TE1 type value?
Electing to not draft a quarterback early has been a great strategy. HOWEVER, I do believe that there are exceptions to the strategy. One of the exceptions: Lamar Jackson. Why? Because when drafting Jackson, all fantasy managers need to be thinking they just scored a RB1 that just so happens to also throw the ball.
Data
The breakdown below is a comparative analysis for rushing statistics for all positions in the year 2019. Let’s dive in.
First, he finished 8th in rushing fantasy points. That’s more than teammate Mark Ingram who was also first tier in this category.
Note: Rushing fantasy points are calculated using only rush yards and rush TDs [rush fantasy points = (rush yds.01)+(rush TDs*6)]. Fumbles are excluded.
Second, he totaled 176 carries (22nd best) while averaging the second highest yards per carry for players that carried the ball 20 or more times. That’s more carries than Alvin Kamara. That’s more carries than Michael Vicks 123 carries in 2006, which is the second highest total by a quarterback in NFL history.
Third, he ran for the 6th most yards trailing the rushing title leader by less than 400 yards. That’s more yards than the volume monster Leonard Fournette who had 89 more carries than Jackson.
Fourth, his 7 total rushing touchdowns were T-14th most and he saw-second tier opportunities finishing top 24 in both red zone carries and red zone touchdowns. An argument could be made that he is a candidate for positive touchdown regression in 2020.
Fifth, Jackson has totaled more rushing fantasy points than any other Quarterback not only over the last 5 years, but in history. He scored 40 more points than Cam Newton did his MVP season……
Are you getting the picture that Jackson first and foremost needs to be looked at as a majestic creature that runs, instead of a passing “quarterback”?
The Rush “ Regression” Counterpoint
There has been speculation that Lamar might not run as much in 2020 and the term “regression” seems to be a favorite word when discussing players within the fantasy industry. It really actually annoys me how much everyone constantly abuses it.
Time to throw some numbers and modeling on this.
First, we’ll assume a 25% “regression” to his rushing production and apply that regression to his 2019 statistics and assume that there is no change to his passing production. Under those conditions, he would have still finished in the second tier in the category of rushing fantasy points. His total adjusted points overall would have regressed to 385, which still would have been the 5th highest point total for all quarterbacks over the last five years.
Reason 2: Roster Construction With Lamar Is The Diggity
Lamar is currently being drafted consistently mid-to-late second round. Well, these constructions are setting up yummy to say the least. Below are two best ball teams that I drafted on @DraftersFantasy app. The team on the left I had the first selection and the team on the right I had the fifth selection.
Note: These teams were drafted in May, 2020.
Both teams set up nicely for the same strategy:
Elite RB round one-Majestic Unicorn round two– Strong potential WR1 round three
Other strategies I like when drafting Jackson round two:
Draft a RB in round three over WR. There is plenty of upside at WR in rounds four to six.
Stack Lamar with Mark Andrews. However, I don’t reach Andrews. If he falls past ADP, then I capitalize. Like wide receivers, there is nice upside at tight end late in the draft.
Conclusion
Lamar Jackson saying he isn’t going to run is like Elon Musk saying Tesla’s stock price is too high. If you don’t know Musk, he is an alien genius and CEO of Tesla (TSLA).
This tweet alone knocked TSLA’s value down $14 billion (USD).
The next trading day the stock jumped significantly.
And then the following day it jumped higher.
As of three months later, a share of TSLA is now valued at $1,500.
The Ravens offense is built on Jackson’s talent and his dual threat run-pass ability is what keeps opposing defenses honest. I do not see a world where there won't continue to be option reads and designed runs for Jackson. When there aren’t designed runs for Jackson, that’s when his instincts should lead him bolting his way to a SportsCenter Top 10 #1 highlight.
The bottom line is that when drafting Jackson, remember that you may be drafting a strong RB1 rush value at the quarterback position. That’s a unique advantage that provides a high scoring floor, which is why he is an exception to the draft a quarterback late strategy.
That’s it for this one.
Don’t be scared to draft Lamar Jackson.
I love unicorns.
Data Model
Raw Data Source: Pff.com
Players In Pool Of Analysis: Running backs with carries => 20, QBs Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson
