Best Ball Strategy: A Pass Catcher(s) Will Emerge From Green Bay
gm, Australia.
Since I’m now 31 years old and wise having gained 18 years of fantasy football experience since starting to play fantasy football at the age of 13, I am now able to share the trend of nearly 20 years of Green Bay wide receiver (WR) production. Not just from the perspective of data, but as a viewer.
For the fantasy football historians, names like: Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb should sound familiar as all were elite fantasy producing Green Bay WRs.
Looking at Green Bay WR performances from 2004 - 2016:
Donald Driver had 3 top 12 WR finishes
Greg Jennings had 2 top 12 WR finishes
Jordy Nelson had 3 top 12 WR finishes
Randall Cobb had 1 top 12 WR finish
The above list were the preceding core of elite producing WRs prior to Davante Adams. Additionally, James Jones was a notable fantasy producer having finished WR17 in 2012.
Now aside from elite production, these wide receivers share something else in common: They had to wait for their time to be elite.
Not shown in the data below, Driver did not breakout (WR13) until 2002, he was a rookie in 1998. 2001 he finished the season WR90 (four years to breakout)
Jones was drafted in 2007 and finished WR57, WR94, WR92 before then having multiple WR40 finishes prior to having his WR17 finish 2012 (five years to breakout)
Nelson was drafted in 2008 and went on to finish WR80, WR92, WR64 before breaking out year 4 finishing WR3 (4 years to breakout)
Jennings and Cobb were the only two of the bunch that had top 24 finishes their second year (two years to breakout)
Even the now all Godly Davante Adams started his career with WR75 and WR74 finishes before finishing WR8 year 3 (three years to breakout)
The point is that over the last 20 years, there has always been a next man up culture in the receiving room in Green Bay.
Now let’s just look at the 14 years that Aaron Rodgers has been the starting QB for Green Bay and the type of receiving production he has supported:
First, Rodgers has finished as a top 12 QB 12 out of 14 seasons. The only two seasons he didn’t finish top 12, he missed more than 7 games
Rodgers has supported 10 top 12 WR finishing performances and 9 WR finishing performances between WR 13 - 24. In total in 14 years, Rodgers has supported 19 top 24 WR finishing performances
Rodgers has supported 4 top 12 TE finishing performances
To the above point of elite top 12 WR and top 24 WR finishing performances that Aaron Rodgers has supported, with the departure of Devante Adams, I tend to lean on the side that YES- FANTASY GODS - YES - I believe someone from Green Bay (if not multiple pass catchers) will be a great return on investment in best ball in 2022. Current ADP of the Green Bay passing attack:
QB Aaron Rodgers - 105.1 ADP - QB13
WR Allen Lazard - 90.4 ADP - WR43
WR Christian Watson - 112.9 ADP - WR53
TE Robert Tonyan - 143.9 ADP - TE15
WR Sammy Watkins - 168 ADP - WR75
WR Romeo Doubs - 210.8 ADP - WR93
WR Randall Cobb - 214.7 ADP - WR104
WR Amari Rodgers - 215.1 ADP - WR107
Based off current ADP, no WR is priced even within the top 36 positionally while Robert Tonyan is priced outside of the top 12 tight ends. YES- FANTASY GODS-YES I expect at a bare minimum one of these pass catchers to obliterate ADP.
However, my early conviction has been leaning towards Allen Lazard as my favorite of the bunch.
TE Robert Tonyan is returning from an ACL tear
Sammy Watkins is a veteran, but new to Green Bay
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are Rookies
Randall Cobb is over the age of 30 years old; production declined in 2021
Allen Lazard is the longest tenured (year 5) Green Bay WR; playing into the ‘next man up’ Green Bay WR culture, Lazard should have the first crack to emerge as the WR1 with already established continuity with Aaron Rodgers
We cannot completely ignore the trust narrative with Aaaron Rodgers as Rodgers trusts 26 year old 6’5” Lazard.
Plus, he just signed his RFA tender, which means there is no longer hold out concern. After signing the RFA tender, he will now be an unrestricted free agent in 2023. 2022 is a massive financial year for Lazard, he must perform well to get truly paid next season. Additional incentive.
Could Allen Lazard be the next WR up in Greenbay? I think he is the leading candidate. Regardless, there is value in best ball drafts targeting Green Bay pass catchers as someone will emerge from the situation obliterating a cheap price tag. Again, Aaron Rodgers supports desirable fantasy production at the WR and TE positions.
I am targeting mixing in Green Bay stacks in drafts not just because of the historical data, but because the Packers are T-3rd best odds on DraftKings to win the Super Bowl (+1000). As the offense should be solid, the passing attack could be an excellent point of construction price leverage on the more expensive Green Bay RBs: Aaron Jones - 18 ADP - RB9, AJ Dillon - 72.7 ADP - RB25. g2g
For the vacated target case on why someone will emerge from Green Bay, check my post: 2022 Favorite Best Ball Draft Targets Part 1. Allen Lazard Szn? Perhaps.
Note: I have been loading into Lazard shares since when we he was priced in the 12th+ round. His price is rising quickly and he is starting to get expensive.
