Fantasy Players With Good Schedules
Hello everyone, and welcome to the extremely professional Wet Farts with Hot Starts post for the 2020 fantasy football season. We are dissecting early season schedules and looking for some otherwise poopy situations that actually might be okay to start the season. Be warned, some of these may shock you.
We see it every year: guys we faded all offseason jump out of the gate with a nice game or two, before ultimately proving us correct over the long haul. So by utilizing the handy strength of schedule table Rob created based on 2019 fantasy points given up and comparing that to 2020 strength of schedule measurements that take into account offseason changes, I came up with a list of players and situations that, otherwise, I’m not that high on… but who could still have a hot start to the fantasy season.
To that point, I could say that understanding the opening schedule this season could be especially important, because certain leagues and platforms will register official seasons by week 6 or so in the scenario that the season is cut short by coronavirus. At the same time, I’ve learned it can be quite pointless to make predictions about coronavirus, and trying to parse out potential scenarios like this could do more harm than good.
QUARTERBACKS
Nick Foles
Okay let’s start with my favorite wet fart, hot start pick. I may be the only one in the Milky Way Galaxy with even a dash of excitement around Nick Foles’ fantasy value. The clock has run out on the Mitch Trubisky experiment, which I always knew was a complete waste. (Chris you owe me $50.)
Receipts!
If Foles is the week 1 starter, he’d be walking into a pretty amazing 3-game stretch to kick off the year:
Week 1: @ Detroit (indoors)
Week 2: vs Giants
Week 3: @ Atlanta (indoors)
All three of these defenses struggled against fantasy QBs in 2019, and I don’t see big shifts taking place in 2020. Foles & Co. could put up some points to start the year. He’s currently undrafted in most best ball formats… Gross, I know, but something to consider for a low-owned 3rd QB in tourneys.
Gardner Minshew
This is actually one I’m not crazy about including here, but the possibility exists for Minshew to start relatively hot. I don’t have much hope for him or anyone else in Jacksonville aside from Chark, but the early season schedule is CAKE for the Jags offense, all the way up to their week 7 bye:
Week 1: vs Indy
Week 2: @ Titans
Week 3: vs Miami
Week 4: @ Cinci
Week 5: @ Houston
Week 6: vs Detroit
This isn’t a situation I’m really targeting; I don’t think I’ve drafted Minshew once this offseason. But it wouldn’t be surprising if he was able to put up some points, in weeks 3-6 especially.
Aaron Rodgers
This one pains me. I am out on Aaron Rodgers this year. He does have some positive TD RAGRASSION for the 2020 season, but I want no part of whatever the hell is happening up in Green Bay on the offensive side of the ball. Willing to be wrong here. Already can feel the gross scenario of Rodgers slinging TDs week 1 and smiling into the camera. Objectively, I do think Rodgers could get off to a nice start in the 2020 season.
Week 1: @ Vikings
Week 2: vs Lions
Week 3: @ Saints
Week 4: vs Falcons
I know week 1 would seem somewhat difficult against the Vikings, but this is a team Rodgers is familiar with, and the Vikings corner situation is actually shaky. Week 2 is where he could open things up against another familiar division rival, the Lions. Basically, if you play the Lions, you make this list. Then in week 4, Rodgers gets the Falcons at home.
RUNNING BACKS
David Montgomery
I can’t think of a wetter poof of a fart in fantasy football than Mr. Montgomery’s situation, and I mean that with all due respect. Insert a fair and opposing viewpoint here to hedge this take and avoid complete humiliation in the future should he break out. Okay okay, DMont is entering his second year and could take a leap!... but he’s just not very explosive.
Montgomery gets to go against 7 of the worst run defenses this upcoming season, based on 2019 fantasy points given up. We already went over the Bears opening schedule for Foles, so that means DMonty could be in for some decent points, as well, though I keep questioning his upside.
I’d still rather draft Dr. David Montgomery and listen to him talk about topsoil.
Week 1: @ Detroit (indoors)
Week 2: vs Giants
Week 3: @ Atlanta (indoors)
David Johnson
All jokes aside, I do think David Johnson could have some value throughout the season since the Texans managed to make Carlos Hyde a 1,000-yard rusher. The Texans could be in some high-scoring games to start the season, facing off against the Chiefs and Ravens.
Honestly not the best opening schedule, but it felt wrong not to include DJ in the wet fart series.
Sony Michel
Sony (SNE) stock has made a solid rebound with the markets in recent months, thanks in part to hype around the PS5. I don’t see a similar resurgence for Sony Michel’s fantasy stock, however.
Click image to enlarge
In fact, who knows if Sony will even be the main guy like he has been, given the Patriots’ history of rotating backs and Michel’s own injury history. Plus, he’s just not that exciting anyways.
However, if Michel is the guy to start the year, he gets a juicy opening matchup against the Dolphins. After that Michel gets the Seahawks, Raiders, and then the Chiefs, all beatable run Ds based on 2019 fantasy points given up. To be sure, the Patriots opening schedule is one reason Cam Newton intrigues FU so intensely. I will say I drafted Sony Michel in a best ball draft the other day, but that was in the 15th round.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Denver WRs
This one is interesting. I’m not a believer in the Broncos offense over the course of the season, and their week 1 opponent the Titans have revamped their secondary. More interesting, however, is the fact that they’re apparently not naming a defensive coordinator for the 2020 season.
I do have faith in Mike Vrabel, but maybe this “unique strategy” has some issues in week 1 on the road. At the very least, you’d have to imagine the Broncos are eager to show off their suddenly dynamic set of weapons, and Pat Shumur could have a lot schemed up for the first game of the year. Oh god, am I going to be playing Lock-Hamler stacks week 1 in DFS?
Chargers WRs
You can’t ignore the schedule for the Chargers offense.
Week 1: @ Cincinnati
Week 2: Kansas City
Week 3: Carolina
Week 4: @ Tampa Bay
Week 5: NEW ORLEANS
Week 6: Jets
Week 7: @ Miami
I don’t have much exposure to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or even Hunter Henry. However, there’s certainly potential for points in these matchups. It’s hard to get a good grasp of the offense because of the quarterback situation, but there is a chance the Chargers, from a fantasy standpoint, get off to a decent start to the season.
Alright, those are some of the poopy situations you’ll want to monitor at the start of the year. If a guy you’re bearish on burns you week 1, don’t overreact. It’s a long season.
Stay safe out there.
