DFS And Sports Betting Galaxy Brain For The NFL Divisional Round
The NFL Divisional Round is upon us. Last slate of the year for NFL DFS, can’t hold anything back now. I’m on this slate like Tom Cruise is on COVID precautions. Here are some random thoughts I have from a fantasy and sports betting standpoint heading into the second round of the NFL playoffs.
Rams at Packers
Who can make a big play in this game? It feels like the running backs have the best chances. Cam Akers is hot and we’ve seen the Packers get shredded on the ground before. However, the Rams being 6.5-point dogs brings in game script concerns, despite his cheap $5,700 price tag on Draftkings. And you’d have to think the Packers know that Akers is by far the most dangerous Rams player, but it’s always dangerous betting on people to be smart. For what it’s worth, he’ll be one of the highest owned players on the entire slate. So if you see a 13 for 58 game in his future, you may want to fade.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones is likely to get near bell cow status in a positive game script, and MVP voting is over, so maybe Aaron Rodgers will be more likely to simply hand the ball off to Jones near the goal line now. Disclaimer: I am a sick fish for Aaron Jones.
The upside for the wide receivers in this game feels limited. The Rams secondary hasn’t given up big plays all season, and the Rams receivers don’t really have a quarterback, with limited Goff heading to Lambeau to play in frigid conditions. The Adams-Ramsey matchup will be center stage, but the Packers get really creative with Adams, whereas I believe Ramsey rarely follows across the formation, especially the slot.
Ravens at Bills
Bring on a primetime playoff game in Buffalo! The snow is expected to be falling steadily in this one, to the point where it sounds like even some sharp people are a little concerned. My little fish brain was tossing around the idea of a strong defensive performance from the Ravens, but I’m sick of not being on the Bills bandwagon, and I’m definitely not sitting down on a Saturday night and betting against that #party in Buffalo. I think Buffalo (-2.5) finds a way.
For this reason, the Bills ($2,900) are standing out to me as an interesting contrarian play at defense on Draftkings. The Ravens on the other side could be the highest-owned defense on Draftkings, making this EVEN MORE INTERESTING.
With Zack Moss out, you would expect the chances to go up for a Josh Allen rushing TD. On Draftkings, he’s +125 to score a non-passing touchdown, whereas starting running back Devin Singletary is at +200.
Browns at Chiefs
The most interesting matchup of the weekend, and no that’s not because I’ve been jumping on the Browns bandwagon. You hear me and you hear me good: the Browns have game changers on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs need to be careful about letting them hang around, as they’ve done with their opponents in recent weeks.
Of course, the Chiefs have the best player in the NFL in Mahomes and recency bias could certainly be playing into any Browns hype after their historically weird game against the Steelers. Either way, why would taking my hard-earned money and betting against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes be a responsible decision?
It’s really hard to get off Kelce on Draftkings. The Browns have been torched by tight ends all year. His over/under receiving yards on DK is set at 86.5, with the under at +120 lol.
Austin Hooper at $3,800 on Draftkings feels sweet. He’s been heavily involved, the Browns will need to pass, and the Chiefs have been susceptible to tight end production. Double TE builds on Draftkings could be popular, especially the Kelce-Hooper combo, given the easy correlation and needed savings Hooper provides once you put in the Chiefs players.
Baker Mayfield could be an interesting punt option at QB. He could also lose you all your money, and single-handedly lose the Browns the game.
Buccaneers at Saints
Kamara will be extremely dangerous in this one if Latavius Murray sits, or is limited, despite a seemingly difficult matchup against the Tampa Bay run defense. It’s interesting he’s the same price as Kelce, setting a potential slate-changing decision for some people.
The Bucs have been maybe the most volatile team in the NFL this season, and because of that, they’re harder to predict. Bruce Arians is 0-4 against Sean Payton, so there’s that. My view on this game is that the Bucs have the firepower to get past the Saints, but there is nothing standing out to me suggesting they couldn’t also shit the bed against the Saints yet again.
Michael Thomas is once again cheap and will once again be really popular. Will he deliver a ceiling game this year? He will definitely have a positive matchup against Tampa DBs, but you’re going to want the Bucs to push the pace to get a better game environment.
Final thoughts
Overall, the Browns-Chiefs game just stands well above the rest with its 57-point over/under, and while the ownership will likely reflect that to some extent, it may not go far enough. Given the weather concerns in Buffalo, the rest of the game environments look to be a clear cut below the potential explosive nature of the Browns-Chiefs game.
Regardless, if you’re playing the two-day Draftkings main slate this weekend, make sure you have a swapping strategy in place. Beaver talked about this on his Friday podcast.
