One From The Bun: DFS Week 1 “Warm-Up”
This year I decided to only play one DraftKings lineup per week. While I may throw together a few different tourney lineups if I have time, every week my focus will be on one main lineup to use in cash contests.
I certainly understand the thrill of playing tourneys and going for life-changing money every week, but for me personally, playing cash games is simply a wiser choice. The main reason is honestly because I can't just sit around all Sunday morning tinkering with 150+ lineups and getting my ownership percentages to a place where I feel confident I can compete. Instead I’m narrowing my focus and hoping to see a slight return on investment every single week.
In the meantime I’ll be blogging about my DFS experiences, not just as a way to help you all in any way, but also to help myself and keep track of the lessons I learn. Also, if you love DFS, make sure you keep an eye out for the FantasyUnleashd Podcast. It’ll be launching soon with a focus on DFS, so stay tuned!
I’m really kicking things off from a DFS perspective in week 2 of the NFL season because heading into the first Sunday I was a bit preoccupied with my brother-in-law’s wedding. In other words, I didn’t have much time to spend on my lineup, so I went VERY light for week 1.
Despite this, I still put together a decent cash lineup in week 1… even without Josh Jacobs.
My absolute lock of the week was Davante Adams going up against a depleted Minnesota defense. He simply seemed too cheap at $7,300 for DraftKings’ full PPR scoring, compared to Michael Thomas’ $9,000 salary.
From there, the decision was whether there was a way to get to George Kittle at tight end. However, some lineup experimenting quickly told me there was no way to get off Herndon’s $3,300 salary, even though the upside was clearly limited against Buffalo’s awesome defense in a game with a low point total.
With Herndon and Adams locked in, I turned to QB next, where I was considering Cam Newton or Jimmy Garoppolo. I never felt like I had to go cheaper than those two. Cam’s rushing potential was what ultimately pushed me to him, plus a lack of weapons for Garoppolo. I liked both matchups, but Cam as a huge favorite against the Dolphins at $6,100 felt like a pretty safe bet.
After the Miles Sanders news, Boston Scott seemed to be a must-play at $4,800, figuring he’d be good for at least a few receptions to give him a nice floor in a week with basically no smash value plays. Marvin Jones was another guy that became a plug-and-play because of injury.
I don’t know why I didn’t land on “free square” Jacobs… it was probably because I was drinking from 11 am to 10 pm on Saturday (I was reprimanded for trying to grab a beer from a cooler after this time due to state orders). But I felt really good about Joe Mixon against a Chargers defense that has been gashed by the run in recent years. I expected the Bengals to lean on Mixon in Burrow’s first game, and liked his chances for 4 catches or so and a TD.
I also liked Alvin Kamara against the Buccaneers, given that he historically has put up high-catch games against them, and figured he’d have multiple redzone opportunities in a matchup between two potentially efficient offenses.
Finally at WR, Calvin Ridley emerged in my mind late Sunday morning, suddenly recognizing he was an awesome high-floor, high-upside play at $6,100 to give me exposure to one of the week’s highest point totals. To get to him for only a few hundred dollars more than someone like Terry McLaurin, who was in a much less enticing matchup, seemed like a great spot to attack.
While I was working on my lineup, I was only considering three defenses: the Patriots, Colts, or Washington. To me, the Colts seemed mispriced at $3,000, when I felt they should have been closer to the top near the $3,600 range. Washington at $2,000 was the clear favorite throughout the week, but it turned out I didn’t need the savings, so I went with the Colts.
Week 1 Results: Drunk, hungover, yet still came out slightly positive on the week. The preseason is over. Next week it begins for real!
