Best Ball Strategy: Solo Tight End Construction, Part II
gm, Australia.
Last year I wrote about how and why I believed solo TE could be a viable construction. To test the theory, I then actually drafted 23 teams that were solo TE builds. Long story short, one of those solo TE constructions finished 17th in BBMII, while another made it to the Puppy 3 semi-finals.
It is now time to clear the air to A) re-explain why solo TE can be a viable construction and B) explain the TEs that should be targeted if attempting solo TE.
The intent of this post is in no way, shape or form intended to advertise why solo TE is the most viable construction. Solo TE is not the most viable. Solo TE is just another way to bake a cake; there are a lot of ways to bake cake in best ball.
Solo TE - The Thesis
The entire thesis of a solo TE construction is built on three separate pillars:
Elite TE production - Undoubtedly the number one mistake that I see when drafters attempt solo TE constructions is constructing it around a ‘could be good’ TE. For example, I love Irv Smith Jr. as a potential breakout candidate at the TE position, but when drafting a solo TE construction, the TE should consistently produce a floor comparative to the rest of the positions average production, and have a ceiling that separates from the positional group overall. In the last five years, these have been the TEs that typically finish either 1st or 2nd in overall points. In 2021, those TEs were Mark Andrews (TE1) and Travis Kelce (TE2). Andrews scored 77.8 more points than the TE3 and 103.9 more points than the TE5, while Kelce scored 47 more points than the TE3 and 73.1 more points than the TE5. When drafting solo TE, you want to draft to the narrative that the TE will be the best TE in fantasy. Not top 10. Not top 5. The #1 TE in fantasy that can separate from the other TEs as a truly elite producer.
TE Depth Opportunity Cost - When drafting solo TE, we want to think of the solo TE construction vs. the competitors from two different perspectives:
A) The optimized depth of the TE position that the competitors have is nearly offset by the solo TEs production in round 1 (weeks 1 to 14).
B) The additional depth spent on the RB and WR positions on a solo TE construction will outscore the competitors TE scores utilized in the flex position.
Explained differently, a competitor’s roster with depth at TE (i.e. three TEs) will not overall outscore the elite TE nor will the depth at TE contribute more points in the flex roster spot than a solo TE build construction. To point B, on a solo TE construction you are accepting higher risk by adding RB/WRs to the construction that may only be utilized once or twice a year, but provide higher ceilings when they do spike than the TE position overall.
Qualifying Round Vs. Elimination - When discussing different constructions, there should always be a ‘what is a better construction for potential advance rate’ vs. ‘what could be a construction that could win a top heavy tournament’ discussion. Solo TE is not the construction to choose when targeting higher advance rates for the 1st round (weeks 1 - 14). However, I do believe Solo TE can be a construction that if the team does make it to round 2 (week 15), can ascend to the top of lineups to advance weeks 15 and 16, while having a chance week 17. Two outcomes drive this thought process:
A) when an elite TE scores a top 1% ceiling week, that production will ascend the overall roster and separate from competitors (i.e. 2021 week 15 - Kelce scored 36.1 points, Andrews scored 30.6 points).
B) By having additional depth at RB/WR, you are drafting to the narrative to have an increased chance of higher ceiling outcomes (i.e. 20+ points) the most important weeks of the tournament. In 2021 the TE position scored a total of 22 occurrences over 20 points compared to RBs 96 occurrences and WRs 89 occurrences. By having increased depth at RB and WR at the cost of depth at TE, we are attempting to increase our chances of hitting higher scores each week. As drafters, we must absorb the risk of not knowing when the ceiling or spike weeks will be produced as the timing of when players produce their best weeks is unpredictable. Instead, we draft the best potential suitors for the construction and cross our fingers while praying to the fantasy Gods that the players spike in the most critical times of the year to separate from constructions that have additional depth at TE.
2021 Actual Points Contributed TE Examples
Mark Andrews (TE1) and Travis Kelce (TE2) were true separators from the field in 2021. Below is a comparison of top finishing TE combinations and what would have been the total points contributed to the TE roster position based off optimized scoring (highest score utilized) versus solely the production of Andrews and Kelce. The bottom of each example shows the total points contributed by each TE group and what would have been a net gain or loss for Andrews and Kelce.
Note: A sample of the entire year was used in the comparison as the timing of when peak and trough scores will be produced is unknown. When drafting a solo TE construction, we assume that production in round 1 to be consistent with the sample of the entire season.
Example 1
Below is a two TE build constructed of the number 3 and number 4 finishing TEs. Last year the combination of Schultz and Kittle would have contributed 4.8 more points than Andrews and 35.6 more points than Kelce.
Example 2
Below is a TE build with additional depth constructed of the number 3, number 4 and number 6 TEs. Last year the combination of Schultz, Ertz and Gronk would have contributed 25.8 more points than Andrews and 56.6 more points than Kelce.
Example 3
Another three TE build constructed, but replacing the number 6 finishing TE (Gronk) with the number 7 finishing TE (Pitts). Last year the combination of Schultz, Ertz and Pitts would have contributed 4.3 more points than Andrews and 26.5 more points than Kelce.
Example 4
The next couple of TE constructions will be comprised of TE combinations that were the best finishers NOT named Andrews or Kelce. Example 4 is a three TE build constructed of the number 8, 9 and 10 finishing TEs. Last year the combination of Knox, Henry and Goedert would have contributed 1.1 more points than Andrews and 31.9 more points than Kelce.
Example 5
Scaling back the strength of the TE builds further, below is a construction comprised of the TE3 and two TEs that finished outside of the top 12. Last year the combination of Schultz, Freiermuth and Higbee would have contributed 19.8 less points than Andrews and 11 more points than Kelce.
Example 6
In example 6 the build is reduced to two tight ends, but constructed of the TE4 and TE6. Last year the combination of Ertz and Pitts would have contributed 47.7 less points than Andrews and 16.9 less points than Kelce.
TE Example Thoughts
Listen, all of the above are all extreme examples of the type of TE combinations that a solo TE build will face in round 1. Across multiple drafts, there will be very few teams (if any) that have a combination of multiple top 6 finishing TEs on one roster. The above examples were used to paint the picture that under solo TE, we are drafting to the narrative and the expectation that their will be almost no loss to our competitors teams at the TE position in round 1, and if there is loss, we expect the loss to be minimal and regained by our solo TE constructions additional depth at the RB and WR positions (higher scoring players).
A Deeper Look At RB & WR
To recap:
“In 2021 the TE position scored a total of 22 occurrences over 20 points compared to RBs 96 occurrences and WRs 89 occurrences. By having increased depth at RB and WR at the cost of depth at TE, we are attempting to increase our chances of hitting higher scores each week.”
Last year of those 22 occurrences that the TE position scored over 20 points, 11 of the occurrences were produced by TEs drafted in the first five rounds: Andrews (4), Kelce (3), Kittle (2), Pitts (1), Waller (1). That leaves 11 remaining occurrences produced by all other TEs spread out over an 18 week season.
Based on 2021 and 50% (11/22) of the TEs 20+ point scores deriving from early draft selections, we can generally assume that their will be limited occurrences of 20+ point weeks for TE selections after the 8th round, which in Underdog drafts, is when we start to see a higher frequency of TEs drafted.
To understand the ceiling cost as a drafter you could be paying by adding depth at TE, I wanted to see how many 20+ point occurrences there were for the RB and WR positions drafted after the 8th round in 2021 drafts.
RB Data Set
In 2021 for the RBs that had an ADP the last day of draft season, there were 38 occurrences of 20+ point scores for RBs drafted after the 8th round. Those 38 occurrences were accounted for by 23 different players.
WR Data Set
In 2021 for the WRs that had an ADP the last day of draft season, there were 29 occurrences of 20+ point scores for RBs drafted after the 8th round. Those 29 occurrences were accounted for by 24 different players.
To summarize, in 2021 there were a 22 total occurrences of a TE scoring 20+ points, 11 of those occurrences of which were accounted for by TEs drafted in the first 5 rounds. In a solo TE construction the cost of not having additional depth at TE is to have additional depth at RB and WR. Looking specifically at RB and WRs drafted after the 8th round in 2021, there were a total of 67 20+ point occurrences produced by 47 different players. When drafting a solo TE construction, those 67 occurrences are the scores we are targeting to add to our rosters at the cost of not drafting a TE depth. These are the scores that we target to:
Regain any lost points to competitors TE position if an elite TE has a trough week
Most importantly, increase our solo TE constructions overall ceiling in the most important weeks of the season (weeks 15, 16 and 17) to separate from competitors scores
Concluding Thoughts
It can’t be overstated how difficult it is to advance and win in the best ball tournament rounds 3 - 4 (week 15 -17). Below are the advancing numbers by round
week 15 - 10 person groups - 1 person advances
week 16 - 16 person groups - 1 person advances
week 17 - 470 person group - 1 person wins grand prize
After advancing past round 1, when drafting a solo TE construction we are hoping that during weeks 15-17 that elite TE production will hit and separate from the field. We are also hoping for the increased depth at RB and WR to increase our chances of hitting 20+ point scores, to overall raise the ceiling of our construction.
More random:
Last year Mark Andrews was the highest owned TE in BBMII finals. One perspective of game theory says that you’d want to have another TE on your roster that is low owned so if that TE hits, your roster has leverage on the field. My thought on the matter is that I would rather have the highest owned elite TE who you absolutely must have if he hits, and if he has an average week, then you’re not losing your hat and shirt to what in all likliness is a score from the low owned TE that isn’t scoring over 20 points. Give me Mark Andrews chalk and a low owned Donovan Peoples Jones who has 25+ point upside over Andrews and a TE that has 10-15 point upside
I literally do not give a F about a zero score bye week when drafting solo TE when there is a chance the TE2 I could have drafted scores 5 points. Under solo TE, the roster spot is better spent on a speculative RB or WR that could score 20+ points in weeks 15 - 17
If you play weekly DFS and I told you during one Sunday slate that you can either add two more TEs to your roster OR you could add one of: A) two RBs B) two WRs C) one RB and one WR, chances are you will either choose A, B or C over two TEs
Solo TE is one way to bake a cake in best ball and GD it there are a lot of ways to bake ‘em.
My 2022 Solo TE Strategy
In 2022 I plan to max BBMIII and all puppy’s. Since, I’m drafting higher volume, I plan (hope) to be successful through volume and will not be heavy on a solo TE construction, which is a risky build. Overall I am targeting to be around 5% (MAX) solo TE builds. The TEs this year that I believe are solo TE viable: Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Both top finishing TEs in 2021 that both have vacated target cases to be made with the departures of Tyreek Hill from Kansas City and Marquise Brown from Baltimore. Other than Andrews and Kelce, I may attempt solo TE with Kyle Pitts, but that to me feels more speculative outcome to expect year two TE separation production. Those three TEs are the only TEs that I think could have the combination of higher floor than average TE production and weekly ceiling potential that make solo TE viable. Overall on the year I will be overweight Kelce and Andrews for a lot of the points noted in this post (two tight end builds). Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews is the best high priced construction on the board. Not to be controversial or anything… g2g, but here is one of my favorite early BBMIII solo TE teams:
