Best Ball Strategy: Price Positional Anchoring

gm, Australia.

Best ball fantasy football is a new and growing game, which comes with a lot of new research, which then leads to coining of new terms, which then can lead to a bunch of confusion when actually drafting.

Today, I will not be talking about the next one-millionth RB construction that you need to be applying in your drafts (i.e. zero RB, modified zero RB, robust RB, hero RB, etc.). I mean come on, it’s getting near a point of nauseum that RB continues to be the sole basis to which researchers continue to want to coin and tie best ball constructions to...

Instead of drafting towards a premediated construction tied to the RB position, the intent of this post is to review the idea of drafting to narrative based on price paid for all positions. This is the concept of price positional anchoring, which can be easily applied in every draft you do.

Consistent Production

As the idea of anchoring tends to be thought of when drafting RB, it was reviewed in Understanding Half Point PPR Scoring that when specifically comparing RB to WR, there are very similar consistencies in overall production between the two positions at a macro level, but also at a micro level for the top 12 finishers of each position.

Usable points can be defined as scores over 10 points for the RB, WR and FLEX positions, meaning, scores over 10 points for elite producers can be considered usable or anchored production that overall raises the floor of the positional group of which the selected player was drafted.

It is recommended to reference the Understanding Half Point PPR Scoring post, but for ease, below are a few examples of premium priced players that provided anchor production in 2021:

• WR:

  • Stefon Diggs 13 games greater than (>) 10 points

  • Justin Jefferson 15 games > 10 points

  • Mike Evans 12 games > 10 points

  • Cooper Kupp 15 games > 15 points (God Mode)

• RB:

  • Alvin Kamara 10/13 games played > 10 points

  • Najee Harris had 13 games >10 points

  • Joe Mixon had 11 games > 10 points

  • Jonathan Taylor had 15 games > 10 points

• TE:

  • Mark Andrews had 11 games > 10 points

  • Travis Kelce had 12 games > 10 points

Under price positional anchoring, the idea to ‘anchor’ a position based on ‘price’ ultimately means that throughout the remaining draft, their should be a lesser need for immense depth at the anchored position as the general floor of the premium priced players (i.e. 10 points) is higher than the average production of players being selected later in drafts. Timing is unknown of when inconsistent producers at each position will have their ‘spike’ weeks; an elite anchor at any position consistently fills a roster spot during the inconsistent producers ‘trough’ weeks, while still provide the highest of ceiling ‘spike’ weeks.

Drafting To Narrative

• Opportunity cost: The opportunity cost of not drafting another player in each of the first three rounds is too high for the player you’ve selected in each of the first three rounds to not be successful. Another way of saying it, there will be players in each of first three rounds that will be successful, elite fantasy producers in 2022. When drafting, we need to draft to the expectation that our selections are the winners in each round

• Success of the team: The success of the drafted team will to a certain extent be determined by early draft picks. For example, if Austin Ekeler is drafted as a first round pick as RB5, but finishes the season RB30, chances are the team drafted is unlikely to advance in a best ball tournament format. We need to draft to the expectation that Ekeler is the RB5, not a RB that could be top 15

• Stacking: When specifically selecting pass catchers (WRs/TEs) in the first three rounds as anchors, the thought process should be to then target stacking the WR/TE with the QB from the same team. For example, if selected Justin Jefferson 4th overall as WR2, we should be thinking to select Minnesota’s QB Kirk Cousins in the 10th round. If Justin Jefferson is the WR2 on the year like we expect, Cousins should be a more than viable fantasy producing QB. The stacking concept can be the same with anchors at RB, however, I am price sensitive to stacking a high priced RB with a high priced QB and do not prefer the strategy. If stacking a high priced RB, I prefer it to be with a lower priced QB

• Playoff correlation: To win best ball tournaments, playoff week correlation can be pivotal. The first three draft selections or the price positional anchors should be the starting points of targeted correlation throughout the draft. If each drafted team is to have success in the playoffs, the first three drafted picks should produce ceiling type production. If those players provide ceiling production, it could be in a high scoring game. If it is a high scoring game, there are sure to be players with usable scores from the opposing team

Final Thoughts

Price positional anchoring can be defined as the expectation to receive consistent, usable production from each of the players drafted in each of the first three rounds. More importantly, the expectation that these players provide ceiling outcomes the most important weeks of tournaments (weeks 15, 16 and 17).

It is not to say that players drafted after the first three rounds cannot provide anchor production (i.e. 2021 Leonard Fournette), but it is to say that the market has overall priced players relatively correctly, and the players in the first three rounds should be the best fantasy players in 2022.

When spending a premium price on a player remind yourself that anchor production can derive from both the WR and TE positions, and is not exclusive to the RB position. Drafting to the narrative of price positional anchoring narrative should provide increased flexibility throughout the draft with a narrower focus downstream on the players you should target (i.e. stacks/correlation). Further amplifying the anchoring concept, the more players drafted of position early (price over-allocation), the less depth (allocation) needed later.

Draft to narrative and bake the best cake you can. g2g

Note: QB was excluded from this post, but the concept is the same. If spending a high price on a QB (i.e. Josh Allen - ADP - QB1), expect that Allen is the QB1 and reduce need for depth at the QB position.