UFC 259: Adesanya vs Blachowicz Betting Preview
UFC is one of the fastest growing sports businesses in existence right now, so the guys at FantasyUnleashd asked me to provide some insight on the upcoming fights, since they’re basically clueless about the sport but still need to bet and play fantasy on everything. I mean what better time is there to become a UFC fan? We have UFC 259 taking place on Saturday, March 6, and the card features three title fights, including the undisputed goat of UFC, Amanda Nunes. So for anyone betting on the fights or maybe playing DraftKings, here’s a breakdown of the three title fights.
Adesanya Vs. Blachowicz
Israel (Izzy) “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya is making the jump from 185lbs to 205lbs to make a run at becoming a double champion. In order to complete that task, he is going to have to defeat Jan “Polish Power” Blachowicz. It’ll be interesting to see how this fight plays out, as the two have similar styles. The one thing that is throwing a huge variable into this is when Adesanya was interviewed about the fight he explained that he would not be putting weight on in order to fulfill the 205 weight class. He then went on to say he will fight at what he usually walks around at, and not try to adjust his weight. He explained that it could give him an edge in speed and stamina… but he’s likely implementing some gamesmanship in the process, as well.
Whatever the case, weight is a HUGE aspect of a mixed martial-arts fight. Assuming that Adesanya walks around at 190-195, that still means Jan has a 10-15 lb weight advantage, which is EXTRAORDINARY when you’re talking grappling. Adesanya has fought some notorious wrestlers in the middleweight division (185 lbs), and has actually had great success defending the takedowns even though he is stylistically a kickboxer. Although he has been taken down in multiple fights, opponents often have a very difficult time holding Adesanya down, due to his length and scramble abilities.
**UPDATE: Adesanya came in at 200.5 so it would seem he sort of backed down these claims.
In Adesanyas’ career, he has taken advantage of a rather large height and reach advantage against a majority of his opponents. Although he is undefeated in his UFC career, one notable thing to realize is in each loss in his kickboxing career, the size gap has been miniscule, meaning he has not had a major height or reach advantage. HOWEVER, that is not the case this time, as Jan Blachowicz is going to only have a 2” reach disadvantage, and a 2” height disadvantage. Adesanya is a very unorthodox kickboxer who mixes up the strikes with multiple faints to never let the opponent know when a strike is coming. He thrives in space, as he tries to control the pace of the fight to make that an advantage for his striking and cardio.
Although Izzy has found success in the past with lethal leg kicks, one of Blachowicz’s strengths is his superior leg kick defense. Although leg kicks seem miniscule to the average spectator, about 3 leg kicks with this type of power can leave the opponent basically disabled the rest of the fight.
Jan Blachowicz is one of the most lethal strikers in the UFC with his legendary Polish Power. Blachowicz thrives as a very powerful counter striker. One of his best strengths is making the fight ugly, meaning taking the opponent away from their game plan (striking) and turning the fight into a grappling match. One very important fact about Jan is that if he doesn’t feel comfortable about striking with Izzy, he can fall back onto his grappling as he surely has an edge with his BJJ Black Belt. Although Adesanya is notorious for being hard to keep on the ground, if Jan can land a takedown, it should be no trouble with the BJJ black belt and the size advantage. This fight is very interesting in the fact that Adesanya’s best skill is keeping distance from opponents and maintaining that, and Jan just so happens to be FUCKING GOATED at closing the distance and charging in with sledgehammer fists ready to knock some fucking heads off.
Jan is also known to close distance by not only throwing sledgehammer nukes, but also punishing body shots as he is rushing in. His strategy is to get them backing up and whatever way they try to side step to, kicking them in the ribs. Although I personally believe Adesanya has superior striking accuracy and fight IQ, I do believe this is going to be a very interesting fight. I am going to take a stab at betting the underdog (Blachowicz), just because the odds are a great value.
The last thing to mention is that Blachowicz has hired a former kickboxing world champion to his fight team to literally impersonate Izzy’s very unpredictable, unorthodox fighting style, so I do think that this fight will be closer than Vegas is giving Jan credit for, as he has seen 8 weeks of this unorthodox style, from a kickboxing world champion. Although I can not predict Jan to win, I would love to see the polish power hand Izzy his first loss.
Nunes vs. Megan Anderson
There is not much to say about this fight with Amanda Nunes being a -1000 favorite to win the fight. As the undisputed GOAT of women mixed martial-arts, Nunes is once again defending her title. The one thing Megan Anderson has that Nunes may not have fought against before is a huge height and reach advantage. Nunes is the way more well-rounded striker and other than Megan Anderson’s one punch power, Nunes has this one in the bag.
Sterling vs. Yan
This fight is considered the “people's main event,” as Sterling is a fan favorite, and Yan just beat the tar out of Jose Aldo, an OG in the growth of the UFC. Yan is a very good boxer, with exceptional takedown defense, and decent wrestling skills. Sterling, however, is very good at fighting from a distance due to his wild kicks. Also, Sterling will be the superior wrestler and grappler here, as he is a great BJJ practitioner, and has ended multiple fights due to submission.
Sterling is one of my underdog picks, although scary because Yan is a monster. Still, I like Sterling to get the victory here.