UFC 272 Fight Stats, Notes & Bets
Ladies and gentlemen, FantasyUnleashd is officially moving into the MMA game. We’ve flirted with it before, but now we’re going in 100%, full eggplant. Podcasts will be coming for the biggest UFC events, including this weekend for UFC 272. But to get us started here, James Monigold from our elite team of UFC experts put together comprehensive fight stats, notes, and bets for this weekend’s event in Paradise.
*Odds via Bovada; Stats from UFCStats.com
Devonte Smith (-155) vs Ludovit Klein (+130)
KEY STATS:
Klein is a strong striker and so is Smith.
Klein is a tad more technical but Smith can put him to bed. This is a good matchup for him.
Smith’s perfect takedown accuracy and 80% defense has a clear edge over Klein hanging around 50% for both.
Smith is a smooth, opportunistic striker with great timing.
NOTES: Klein is filling in on short notice. These fights are tricky because I’ve seen them play out so many ways but typically the fill in loses. He also has weight cut issues. Klein’s gas tank has questions. Smith is calculated and Klein just seems to walk forward. I sense a weird mismatch. A ton of money has came in on Klein, his line moved from +220 to +130.
I still like Smith.
WINNER: SMITH
Umar Numagomedov (-750) vs Brian Kelleher (+475)
KEY STATS:
Umar has 3” reach advantage, striking avg is 60% but only lands about 3 s.s. Per min.
He averages 8.67 takedowns compared to Kelleher’s 1.87.
Kelleher takes a lot of damage, around 5 strikes a minute and only defends 55% of strikes
NOTES: Umar is a heavy favorite, this is a tricky spot being that he has only fought once in the UFC. Here’s another Dagestani, they are bad mother fuckers. Kelleher is very tough but Umar being a Nurmagomedov will drag him into deep murky waters and win.
WINNER: UMAR
Nick Negumereanu (+114) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (-141)
KEY STATS:
Nick is a heavy looping pressure guy
relies on chin, tough strong guy
Kennedy is very conservative and is passive. Never is the aggressor
I think nick smashes him in every aspect of mma outside of the flukes
Nick is one of those aggressive fighters that will either smash you standing up or on the ground. Could be very likely for a finish
NOTES: Love Nick here big. ML smack. Big possibility of a KO here.
WINNER: NICK
Jalin Turner (-165) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+135)
KEY STATS:
Turner is very tall and long for LW, 6’3 77” reach
Mullarkey giving 3”
Turner is going to have to utilize his 78% TDD as Mullarkey is going to push for ground war
NOTES: Turner is a great boxer. Very good at pushing pace while keep a distance which is tough. Mullarkey is a grappler and is improving on striking. I see this fight going similar to how Smith v Mullarkey went. I got Turner
WINNER: TURNER
Xiaonan Yan (+205) vs. Marina Rodriguez (-265)
KEY STATS:
Yan has takedown accuracy at 75% and takedown defense at 69%, doesn’t shoot often though.
Both are high volume strikers landing between 5 and 6 s.strikes per min
About identical with striking stats
Rodriguez is an inch taller and has 2” reach adv.
Rodriguez has good BJJ and more well rounded
Yan is great boxer tries to outstrike to decision
NOTES: Marina coming off of a huge win vs Mackenzie Dern that gives her a ton of momentum. Yan is a tough opponent, the odds should be a little closer here but it doesn’t matter. I am going Rodriguez
WINNER: RODRIGUEZ
Tim Elliott (+183) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-230)
KEY STATS:
Elliott gives more and takes more on the feet
Elliott is a savage BJJ practitioner, but takes too risks
Tagir is a aggressive wrestler and effective
ground and pound is good
NOTES: I think that Tim Elliott’s aggressiveness with going for subs is gonna get him in trouble here. Tagir will ground and pound his way to the decision most likely. Elliott only gets the W with a sub.
WINNER: TAGIR
Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (+155)
KEY STATS:
They have about identical striking stats, both great at it
NOTES: Jacoby likes to go low early to slow people down. Michal is a speedy striker. Don’t think he’s got enough juice to drop Dustin. I see either a one sided decision or a finish in favor of Jacoby. He’s got more variety and is more well rounded on the feet.
WINNER: JACOBY
Maryna Moroz (+159) vs. Mariya Agapova (-200)
KEY STATS:
almost physically identical length wise
Agapova more accurate and high volume than Moroz
Agapova is a better wrestler
NOTES: This is most likely gonna end up being a slugfest and if it comes to wrestling Agapova has the edge. Moroz is more technical on the feet. Fun one to watch gonna monitor odds and go from there.
WINNER: Agapova
Sergey Spivac (-200) vs. Greg Hardy (+160)
KEY STATS:
Spivac 2” shorter in reach and height
Striking stats are literally almost identical in every category
Spivac is a much better grappler
Spivac is typically the hammer but when pressured panics
Spivac has OK sub game and a capable striker
No KO power really
Hardy has not developed as MMArtist
Athletic but just not that
80% TDD for Hardy
NOTES: Spivac will lose the striking match due to length and power deficiency. Will win the grappling if he can get Hardy down. Will most likely not be betting this fight but if I had to pick I will take one it would probably be Hardy.
WINNER: HARDY
Kevin Holland (-360) vs. Alex Oliveira (+270)
KEY STATS:
Holland 4” taller and 5” reach advantage
Holland is a great striker all around, one of the better in UFC
Holland dropping to 170 from 185
Holland has awful TDD but is a pretty good grappler when it gets down there
NOTES: Oliveira is well rounded, “better” fighter but he gets caught up in wars which are dangerous. This is a huge test for Holland but I think this ends up staying on the feet and Holland will give Oliveira the work, a lil 10 piece chicken nugget with fries on the side. I will be heavy on this fight most likely
WINNER: HOLLAND
Bryce Mitchell (-170) vs. Edson Barboza (+140)
KEY STATS:
Mitchell giving up 5” reach
Barboza is a better striker for sure
Barboza is a walking highlight reel
Mitchell is very good wrestler as well as BJJ practitioner
NOTES: Mitchell is going to work for a submission. He is a grappling god. This is a clear career-defining fight for Mitchell. To be honest, I think the only avenue to him getting the win is a bunch of takedowns, control time and possibly a sub victory. Barboza is more well rounded but Mitchell is an elite grappler. Will shoot about a million times in this fight. Has to be very careful because Barboza can send anyone to shadow city with one strike. This is a very tricky fight to call but I’m gonna go with Mitchell. I think his pace and style ends up drowning Barboza
WINNER: MITCHELL
Rafael Dos Anjos (-165) vs. Renato Moicano (+135)
KEY STATS:
RDA is at a 2” reach and 3” height disadvantage
Statistically, Moicano slightly edges RDA on wrestling stats
RDA is five years older at 37 y/o
Both excellent grapplers and world class BJJ practitioners
NOTES: I just got a feeling on this one. Typically I count old guys out but this is one of the exceptions. RDA is a BAMF and even though he is getting up there in age, I think he is still better and definitely more well rounded regardless. I think RDA uses his great fight IQ, doesn't really put himself into bad situations. I think RDA grabs this W and reminds everyone he is still a tough out.
WINNER: RDA
Colby Covington (-335) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+260)
KEY STATS:
Colby is much better grappling and a super high volume striker, but not much power
Jorge is a fantastic striker and very respectable grappler
NOTES: Colby will shoot about a zillion times in this fight. Jorge might touch him up on the feet. Jorge has the X-Factor on the feet. But Colby will drown Jorge though grappling. Colby here. Gonna end up like Usman Masvidal I.
WINNER: COLBY.
