DraftKings 2021Yardage Player Props Offered - Results

gm, Australia.

Last year I tracked and recorded all 2021 full season yardage player prop futures (passing, rushing, receiving) offered by DraftKings for a three month time period (May - August). Below are the over / under results for all 155 player props offered on the last date recorded: August 15th, 2021.

Actual Results

• Passing Yards

  • 26 player props offered

  • 6 players or 23% hit the over

  • 20 players or 77% hit the under

• Rushing Yards

  • 41 player props offered

  • 16 players or 39% hit the over

  • 25 players or 61% hit the under

• Receiving Yards

  • 88 player props offered

  • 48 players or 55% hit the over

  • 40 players or 45% hit the under

Extrapolated Results Change

• Passing Yards

  • 3 more players hit the over, increasing from 6 to 9 players, or from 23% to 35%, decreasing the under from 77% to 65%

• Rushing Yards

  • 12 more players hit the over, increasing from 16 to 28 players, or from 39% to 68%, decreasing the under from 61% to 32%

• Receiving Yards

  • 14 more players hit the over, increasing from 34 to 48 players, or from 39% to 55%, decreasing the under from 61% to 45%

Totals & Key Data Takeaways

• When totaling the 155 player props offered, the actual results were skewed to the under as 99 players, 64%, or nearly two-thirds hit the under, while 56 players, 36%, or nearly one-third hit the over.

• When extrapolating all players average weekly production across a full 17 week season, meaning: if players maintained their average weekly production and played all games in the season, the gap between the under-overs didn’t just narrow, it flipped in favor of the overs. 29 more players hit the over, increasing from 56 to 85 players, or from 36% to 55%, decreasing the under from 64% to 45%.

• When looking at the how the actual vs. extrapolated totals changed by position, it is worth noting that there was the least change for passing at a 12% shift to the over, while rushing and receiving were both more significant changes. Receiving shifted 16% (39% to 55%) to the over, and rushing shifted 29% (39% to 68%) to the over.

• Based off this one year data sample, it could be assumed that one of the greatest edges the book has over the bettor when betting full season player props is games not played due to injuries, suspensions, etc. The case is strengthened when comparing actual results vs. extrapolated results for passing vs. rushing as the 26 players in the passing category missed an average of 2.2 games, where as the 41 players in the rushing category missed an average of 3.3 games. As previously stated, there was minimal shift to the over for passing (12%), and significant change to the over for rushing (29%). This may be contributed to all the players in the “passing” category being quarterbacks (less frequently injured), compared to the “rushing” category, which is primarily running backs (more frequently injured). It is worth noting that the “games not played” edge could be inflated in 2021 due to players missing games from COVID.

Strategy Perspective - Return On Investment

WHAT IF you took the strategy of betting every under offered? What would have been the 2021 total investment and ROI if you bet $100 on the under, for all 155 player props offered?

• The total investment would have been $15,5000

• The total ROI would have been 24.97% or $3,870 profit

It may not be completely outlandish to bet the under on all season long offered player props, as it could be a viable positive ROI strategy.

Concluding Thoughts

Based on the one year sample, this study may further strengthen the case ‘to bet the under’ as 64% of the 155 yardage player props offered on DraftKings hit the under in 2021. When choosing to bet the overs, it is important to be mindful of the potential risk and impact of players missing games, as any missed game may be an inferred edge by the book on the player prop total offered. When betting full season yardage player props, it may be an optimal strategy to build a portfolio of bets, highly overweight unders to overs, and at a micro level, overweight unders on rushing totals, compared to receiving and passing totals.

Thanks for reading.