Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Rushing Attack 2020
About to go full-fledged Greek mythology on ya bi*** azz
Since J.K. Dobbins was selected as the #55 section in the 2020 draft, there continues to be a lot of noise surrounding the Baltimore Ravens and value at ADP.
First, a look at J.K. Dobbins in college:
In 2019, he rushed for the third most yards in the FBS (2003 yards:6.7 YPC:143.1 YPG).
He carried the ball 301 times and powered in 21 touchdowns.
On 42 more carries in his career, he ran for nearly 700 more yards than Eddie George. He also ran more for yards than Ezekiel Elliott and is only second to Archie Griffin on the all-time Ohio State rushing leader board. Those guys were pretty good at running with a football in their hands.
The dude can press 225 lbs 23 times from his chest. Unfortunately for us, he was too cool to complete any other drills in the NFL combine so we will never know how fast he really is.
The story above summarized: the guy slams the hole.
He’ll be the perfect fit in the Baltimore offense with the gaping holes that are open as defenses throw the kitchen sink trying to contain Lamar Jackson. If Gus Edwards can average 5.35 yards per carry, then it wouldn’t be shocking if Dobbins averaged 6.2, his college average.
The million-dollar question though, what will Dobbins workload be like? How will it impact Mark Ingram? How will it impact Lamar? Gus Edwards has been solid, and Justice Hill has shown flashes. Will they be relevant?
All this uncertainty. A second round running back draft pick and everyone loses their minds.
Let’s take a step back, breathe, not get our panties in a bunch, and look at the numbers.
In the below tables, I’ve broken down 2019 rushing production for the Ravens. Each table includes the Ravens team totals as well as individual rushing production for Jackson and Ingram, plus, combined rushing production for Edwards and Hill. The data excludes wide receivers and tight ends.
The Team Overall
What’s most important to highlight is that the Ravens carried the ball 569 times in 2019, which was the most in the league.
Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram
Both Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram finished top 12 overall in the category of rushing fantasy points.
Both Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram rushed for over 1,000 yards.
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill
Together they totaled 117.6 rushing points, 26.6% of the team total. 117.6 would have been 23rd most in the league in 2019.
They combined for a total of 191 carries. That would have been 21st most for all players in 2019. More than Devonta Freeman (184), Miles Sanders (178), Ronald Jones (172), Alvin Kamara (171), and Kenyan Drake (171) to name five.
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill rushed for 936 combined yards. More than Sony Michel who had 912 yards on 247 carries (T-9th most carries in the league).
Together they ran 33 of the 101 redzone carries. I won’t do the math of the percentage of team total for you on that one. 33 redzone carries would have been T-16th most in the league. A fringe 1st tier stat.
Click to enlarge image. Rushing fantasy points are calculated using only rush yards and rush TDs [rush fantasy pts = (rush yds.01)+(total rush ads6)]. Fumbles are excluded.
The writing is on the great wall of data clear as the blue meth in Breaking Bad. CRYSTAL.
Looking at the running backs, it seems there is more than a world of opportunity for Dobbins to eat into the volume of Edwards and Hill, before he does, Mark Ingram. I mean, come on.. Edwards and Hill are far inferior to Mark Ingram. Just by shifting the entire volume of Edwards and Hill to Dobbins, J.K. would have been a strong rushing RB2 across nearly all rushing categories of data in 2019.
Understanding these numbers, I am not concerned about a mega hit on Ingram’s production like others in the fantasy industry. Ingram is a proven producer in the Ravens offense and was in a committee with Alvin Kamara in New Orleans. While in New Orleans, Ingram had an important role in the offense producing as RB2 (top 24) in his worst years.
Ingram has fallen to the fifth round because of the fear of Dobbins stealing volume. I even saw a tweet by @NoisyHuevos that he fell to the sixth in an “expert” draft. I believe this shouldn’t be happening because of the incredible rushing volume and opportunity in Baltimore. Scoop and score on Ingram all day. It is an unbelievable value if he falls to the 6th.
Enough of the numbers and strategy. Back to Greek mythology, what is THE KHIMAIRA? The khimaira was a three-headed monster which ravaged the countryside of Lykia (Lycia) in Anatolia. It was a bizarre fire-breathing creature with the body and head of a lion, a goat's head rising from its back, the udders of a goat, and a serpent for a tail.
Lamar Jackson is indeed a fantasy GOAT.
Mark Ingram will continue to be the lion of the rushing attack.
J.K. Dobbins will be snaking his volume from Gus Edwards and Justice Hill producing as a RB2.
Defenders are the countryside of Lykia.
