Best Ball Strategy: ‘Onesie’ Position Construction
Good Morning. Good Afternoon. Good Evening. Wherever you are, degenz, let’s hop right into the data.
When discussing best ball fantasy football, construction tends to be one of the most debated topics. Oftentimes the biggest questions are surrounding the ‘onesie’ positions, specifically…
How many quarterbacks should you draft? How many tight ends?
The intention of this post is to briefly dissect 2020 production primarily for the tight end and quarterback positions. We will then apply the data to to best ball roster constructions to identify optimal player allocation for each position.
*It is highly suggested that you view this article from a computer. However, please note that each data set can be clicked to enlarge for a better view.
Tight End Data Bites
As many know, tight end is the lowest scoring position. Only 5 tight ends (Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Robert Tonyan) averaged more than 10 fantasy points per week in 2020.
Only Darren Waller had more than one game over 25 points.
It could be determined that any game over 20 points is ‘ceiling’ production, as there were only total of 23 occurrences that a tight end scored more than 20 points, or 7.3% of the time for the top 24 data sample. Only Kelce (6) and Waller (4) had more than two games over 20 points.
As there were 23 occurrences over 20 points, the same amount of games (23) fell in the 15-to-20 point tier.
There was a fairly even distribution of games spread over the bottom three tiers accounting for a total of 75% of the games. The 5-to-10 point tier had the most occurrences (95 occurrences or 30.1%), while fewer than 5 points was a close second for most frequent (93 occurrences or 29.4%). Finally, the third most frequent tier was 10-to-15 points (82 occurrences or 25.9%).
Overall, there is a lot of red in the tiers over 15 points, meaning that collectively the tight end position is not frequently scoring over 15 points; Travis Kelce is the only player to have a green or blue tier above 15 points. Comparatively to the 0-to-15 point bottom three tiers, there is increased frequency of yellow, green and blue; Again, 75% of all occurrences were between the 0-to-15 point range!
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Tight End Best Ball Construction
The data paints a pretty clear picture. There are few occurrences of over 15 fantasy points scored from tight ends (again, based on 2020 data). The low ceiling of the position coupled with the fact that the majority of all tight end scores fall between 0 and 10 points per week (59% of occurrences), leads to an inferred strategy that only drafting two tight ends at maximum could be considered ‘optimal’.
The reason being that when drafting, if you miss on an elite tight end early (i.e. Kelce, Waller), the chances are that you will draft a tight end(s) that consistently produces in the 0-to-15 point range, averaging less than 10 points per game. Another way of saying it: drafting more tight ends minimally increases the overall ceiling of the position group, which is a very small net marginal gain of points for your team, and is probably a loss versus the field. The opportunity cost of drafting a third tight end may be better spent allocating that roster spot to another position with higher ceiling (i.e QB, RB, WR).
My Approach To Tight End
As a volume drafter my number one goal in 2021 is to keep my maximum exposure for any tight end at 20%, or 1 of 5 teams. It is easy to get high on the next potential breakout tight end, but the chances are that the tight end will not reach Kelce or Waller type production. For this reason, I only like drafting two tight ends for two opportunities to 'hit’ a breakout candidate. The end of the 11th round (Irv Smith, Mike Gesicki, Adam Trautman, Gerald Everett, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith) seems to be a sweet spot when ‘punting’ tight end in drafts.
Hot Take
One tight end builds with an elite tight end may be a viable build. In 2020 Kelce had 13 games over 10 points and Waller had 11 games over 10 points, meaning elite tight ends floor production is generally the average production of other tight ends. When drafting an elite tight end with a proven track record, the expectation, representative of premium price, is to receive elite production. Why add a second tight end that may only be used to gain 10 points on the elite producers bye week? Additionally, the elite tight ends are accounting for the majority of ceiling production for the position, which is an opportunity to gain points and separate versus the field.
To test the theory, I am not drafting a second tight end on the majority of all teams with Kelce and Waller. I am also mixing in single tight end constructions on players that I think can join or re-join the elite tier in 2021: George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews.
Quarterback Data Bites
Overall, quarterback is the highest scoring position, as 10 players averaged over 20 points per week in the 2020 NFL season.
A different picture than tight end, there is a plethora of yellow, blue and green for all tiers 15-to-20 points and over, meaning there is a wide range of production outcomes on a given week.
It could be determined that any game over 30 points is ‘ceiling’ production, as there were 37 occurrences that a quarterback scored more than 20 points, or 10.2% of the time for the top 24 data sample; 10 quarterbacks had more than two games over 30 points.
Each of the top 10 average scoring quarterbacks had 5 or more games over 25 points. After the top 10, there is a pretty sharp decline with more red within the top two scoring tiers. However, 24.2% of all games for the given sample were 25 points or more, and all but 4 of the quarterbacks had at least 1 game more than 25 points.
Similar to tight end, three tiers (20-25, 15-20, 10-15) that are fairly evenly distributed, each accounting for around 20% of all occurrences. The highest occurring tier for quarterback scoring is 15-to-20 points (22.5%).
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Quarterback Best Ball Construction
There is more noise when looking at the quarterback data set compared to tight end. However, the primary takeaway is that there is a wide range of outcomes for weekly production with higher ceilings than tight end, which means there is more opportunity to gain points and a higher risk to lose points versus the field. For example, if a utilized quarterback on team A scores 15-to-20 points, team A could lose 15+ points to team B that has a quarterback that scores 30+ points. Due to the wide range of outcomes and quarterback being the single highest scoring position, a three quarterback build may be optimal. Looking at Josh Allen: Allen was the second highest average scoring quarterback in 2020, but had 7 games less than 20 points. The unknown timing of when those 7 games took place is the unknown variable that can’t be accounted for, which is one example of why three quarterback may be the most optimal.
My Approach To Quarterback
I prefer drafting three quarterbacks to have three chances of hitting ceiling production. The reason? The timing of ceiling and floor production on a given week is unknown. However, I am still mixing in two quarterback builds at the chance that ceiling and floor production occur separate weeks. Overall, I am around a 70% three quarterback build versus 30% two quarterback build.
Hot Take
Four quarterback builds could be productive on teams that do not draft elite quarterbacks or pay premium price for a quarterback (i.e. first six rounds). However, it seems like an assembled 4 quarterback build team that scores over 25 points throughout the season at the position could work with consistent anchored solo running back and wide receiver elite production. Think of it as a “more of the position equals more points” approach (i.e. more chances at hitting worthy high ceiling production) compared to tight end which is a “more is less” approach (I.e. more chances of hitting low unlikely ceiling production).
Concluding Thoughts
When drafting tight end, it does not seem advantageous to draft three tight ends. The reason being that the return of points gained versus the field at the position is minimal, if not a loss. The data therefore suggests two tight end builds may be the most ‘optimal’. One tight end builds with an elite producing tight end may also prove to be beneficial as elite producers floor production is nearly higher the majority of the rest of the positions weekly average (10 points), which is an opportunity of net gain of points throughout the season to separate from the field during ‘ceiling’ weeks. Finally, when only drafting two tight ends or one tight end, that is allowing additional player allocation to other higher scoring positions with higher weekly ceilings.
Specific to quarterback, it may be optimal to draft a three quarterback construction. The quarterback position is more volatile than tight end production, with a much wider range of outcomes, and the consistently highest ceiling of any position. The timing of when ceiling and floor production weeks will occur may be the sole reason to mitigate down side risk while increasing net marginal compounded gain upside, by allocating more players (three) to the position versus (two).
The data suggests that a four quarterback build team could be productive on the right team of elite wide receivers and running backs. However, I am not doing that shiiiii. Maybe I will do one or two, or 69.
FOOTNOTES: Data Sets and Assumptions
The fantasy point scoring is based off of 0.5 PPR
Each data set is sorted in descending order by average points scored per week for each position
The tight end and quarterback position data samples include the top 24 per-week scorers
The data set for each position includes total counts of tieired scores (i.e. for the tight end position, player Travis Kelce had a total of 6 games scoring between 20 and 25 points, where as Kelce had only one game below 5 points)
The data includes standard deviation for points scored as a point of reference, but will not be reviewed in this post
Strategy referenced in this post will be specific to construction for Underdog Fantasy
Starting positions: 1 quarterback - 2 running backs - 3 wide receivers - 1 flex (running back - wide receiver - tight end)