Best Ball Strategy: Wide Receiver Backstop Pt. II
Let’s jump right to it.
Last year I wrote about the wide receiver best ball backstop theory and boring (now anti-vax slip extraordinaire) Cole Beasley.
In a nut shell, the theory states that ‘lower ceiling’ / higher floor scoring players are utilized in a best ball lineup more than fantasy drafters perceive; contrary to the seemingly popular fallacy that because it’s best ball, wide receivers can get you “ceiling” games every week solely because there is no roster management each week (the highest scoring players on a roster start).
The best ball backstop theory then lead to identification of players that I believed fit the mold of consistent ‘high floor’ production, which were primarily slot wide receivers. Through then identifying players that were primarily slot wide receivers coupled with situations I thought could be offensively advantageous, I landed on flag planting high exposure to Cole Beasley, who was my highest owned player for the 2020 best ball season.
How did Beasley fair in best ball last year? Well, he had the 16th highest player Underdog Best Ball Mania I advance rate on Underdog at a rate of 35%.
Full Transparency Note: I completed very few Underdog drafts in 2020 because it was not available in Pennsylvania. However, I had a shit load of Beasley on Drafters [over 400 drafts completed @ 30 % ownership]).
The intent of this post is to further advance the theory by providing different data that paints a similar picture, provide conceptual revisions, and to identify the players I have been targeting for the 2021 season.
Different Data, Same Picture
Last year I ran simulations based off 2019 production to identify weekly point contribution of individual players for each starting wide receiver position. Overall, the data showed that test subjects Cole Beasley and Larry Fitzgerald each would have contributed an average of 7/17 weeks for 10% of the overall wide receiver points scored for 10 different wide receiver constructions.
Instead of looking at data from a micro perspective, below please find a data sample for the total counts of wide receivers that scored over 10 points, by week, for the 2020 season (i.e. week 1, 1 wide receiver scored over 30 points and 3 wide receivers scored between 25 and 30 points).
The counts are broken down by tiered ranges to be able to identify the frequency of ‘ceiling’ production vs. potentially usable production. A few notes:
First, on average a total of 35.53 wide receivers scored above 10 points per week. In an Underdog tournament, there are three starting wide receiver positions in a league of 12 teams. If each of these wide receivers were evenly distributed to each team each week (of course they aren’t in reality), all 10+ point scores would be used on each teams roster (3 starting wide receivers x 12 teams = 36 starting wide receivers). It is safe to say that although not ideal, a 10 point floor is usable production. Also, it is worth noting that there is a flex position on Underdog teams!
Second, on average each week only 1 wide receiver scored over 30 points and 2 wide receivers scored between 25 and 30. That’s a total of 3 wide receivers each week or 8% of the total wide receivers that scored over 10 points. If we are really putting a number on ceiling production, it is probably safe to use over 25 points. However, it is worth noting that on average only a total of 8 wide receivers are scoring over 20 points on a given week (or 21% of wide receivers of those that scored over 10+ points).
Jumping down a tier to the 15 - 20 point range, there is a large increase in the amount of wide receivers that score in that range. In the given sample only 21% of wide receivers score over 20 points in a given week, where as 30% of wide receivers are producing in the 15 to 20 point range. This really looks like the sweet spot for wide receiver production. A portfolio of wide receivers that produce in this range all season should gain points over competitors teams that are using 10 point production, while not losing a ton of production to the 8 wide receivers per week that score over 20 points. Let’s also not forget that there will surely be players on your roster that will produce over 20 points!!
Conceptual Revisions
I hate the idea of naming it the backstop theory because it sounds conservative. Rephrased, 10 - 20 point wide receivers that have usable production shouldn’t be thought of as not only backstops, but they should be thought about as compound contributors that have a summed net marginal gain worth their draft capital. For example, a wide receiver 3 that’s used 7 weeks of the season at 15 points should be considered a compounded net marginal gain of 35 points over the league compeitors that have wide receivers that are scoring 10 points in the wide receiver 3 position. In actuality, that is a conservative net gain because there will be teams that have wide receivers that score under 10 points. Again, we’re not even considering the flex position.
I made the mistake last year of only looking at the players that I identified as having a ‘higher floor,’ but did not confidently stand behind the thought that these players also have higher ceilings than one would expect. Last year there were only 21 wide receivers that scored over 20 points more than once. Jamison Crowder did it three times and Cole Beasley did it two times. Please excuse these boring wide receivers that don’t ‘Moss’ players every play.
Data Fault
I admit it, last year I got too caught up in historical slot numbers and limited the players I was targeting simply based off that data. I did not account for age (Dust), situation, talent, or football application nearly enough.
Instead of just looking at it from the perspective of wide receivers that will be consistently involved in the offense due to ‘collecting’ short underneath catches all season, I am now coupling that strategy with players that could also are in a good situation (more scoring opportunities) or talent to break big plays. In a more nerdy way of saying it, I am targeting players that I think can consistently add value on my constructions by producing in the 10 to 20 point range, but have the ability to score 20+ points in a given week.
2021 Targets
*All of these wide receivers can be drafted after the 10th round.
Cole Beasley - ADP 125 - 18% Exposure
Yes, when drafting whether right, wrong, or indifferent, I don’t factor in political views. Beasley has a risk tagged to his name because of his firm stance opposing the COVID vaccine, but I am willing to bet that he plays and sees similar 2020 in this years campaign. I see new comer Emmanuel Sanders being more of a threat to Gabriel Davis on the outside than Cole Beasley in the slot. Banking that he plays, bet on him collecting catches underneath all season in one of the pass heaviest offenses in the league.
Jalen Reagor - ADP 126 - 18% Exposure
He was a complete bust last year, but I have already forgotten about it as all rookies from 2020 at least deserve a second look, and a second chance at this price tag looks plentiful. There are rumblings that he is expected to be used out of the slot and volume in the slot plus Reagor’s run after the catch ability could be a nice match. Oh, and he is also making one handed catches in camp.
Rondale Moore and Christian Kirk - ADP 112 & 160 - 22% Exposure
The writing could not be written on the wall any more clear. DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will play primarily on the outside and Moore and Kirk are finally the talent that head coach Kliff Klingsbury has needed on the inside to effectively run the 4 wide-out offense he has envisioned. Both wide receivers have big play ability to run a vertical or to take a screen pass to the house. I’m even mixing in both players on the same roster in some instances.
Jamison Crowder - ADP 154 - 16%
The rookie Elijah Moore hype continues to build, but I don’t think it will hurt Crowder as much as his price tag reflects as there have been reports that Crowder will still be the primary wide receiver playing out of the slot. Plus, it is rumored Robert Saleh’s offense will be similar to Kyle Shanahan’s, which means quick passes and relying on run after the catch ability. Crowder fits that bill.
Dwayne Eskridge - ADP 182 - 27% Exposure
As of 8/6, he is just starting to run full speed on the sideline as he is recovering from a toe injury. Eskridge was a highlight reel at Western Michigan and pending he can overcome the toe injury, I see this being a potential situation where Tyler Lockett and Eskridge will share slot responsibility and will be mixed on the outside for home runs. Talent plus what is expected to be an up-tempo offense under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, I love the situation (but hate toe injuries).
KJ Hamler - ADP 194 - 26% Exposure
With the return of Courtland Sutton, I would be lying if this isn’t more of a gut feeling for how I think they should and will use KJ Hamler. Hamler was a juggernaut out of the slot in college, and his profile reminds me a lot of Tyler Lockett.
Hamler is 5’11”, 178 lbs and runs a 4.32 40 yard dash. Lockett is 5’10”, 182 lbs and runs a 4.40 40 yard dash. Hamler had a 61% slot rate in 2020 and Lockett had a 54% slot rate in 2020.
I’m betting A) that Sutton and Jeudy will be primarily play outside and Hamler will be on the inside B) on Hamler’s talent AKA 4.32 speed C) Denver can actually move the ball on offense.
Byron Pringle - ADP 203 - 26% Exposure
I just need to express my tingle for Pringle. There have been reports out of camp that Pringle is winning the competition against Demarcus Robinson for the third wide receiver spot. Byron Pringle as the third wide receiver on the best offense in football with an 18th round price tag and the potential to overtake Mecole Hardman as the number two? Moon.
*P.S. In best ball, there is value in drafting players that produce, but may not be the next best thing since sliced bread.