Best Ball Strategy: Intra-Divisional Stacking
Hi, Degenz. It is WILLIAM L. - AKA Rob - AKA Cash-AKA Cashketchum.
I’ve been in the best ball streets since the start of this year, and as I continue to draft, I continue to think, speculate, dream, and theorize about best ball.
One thought that I can’t quit thinking about, is not just stacking, but stacking with run-backs.
It’s no secret in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournaments that a winning lineup construction may not only be a stacked lineup (i.e. Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes + Tyreek Hill = stack), but also a stacked lineup that has a ‘run-back’ from the opposing team (I.e. Chris Godwin = run-back if Kansas City [Mahomes+Hill] was playing Tampa Bay [Godwin]).
The thought process therefore is simple: if stacking with a run-back is a winning construction in DFS tournaments, why not apply this same strategy in best ball tournaments? The answer may be that as drafters, the majority of us may shy away from an extra layer of complex planning when drafting (i.e. targeting correlated matchups with future picks instead of targeting only a player or position with future picks).
It would be difficult to plan every pick with not only the next player in mind, but also a future matchup. However, what about a more simplistic approach? Like drafting players from teams within the same division?
Intra-Divisional Stacking In Best Ball
If you were able to draft a single player from each team in a said division, that would be a total of 12 games in a season that you would have correlated run-backs. 12!
By targeting intra-divisional stacking you would eliminate the ‘complexity’ of planning for specific games on a roster, but for this theory to provide a competitive edge, you would need to target divisions in which you believe to have all high scoring capable teams (targeting high game totals in daily fantasy is strategy 1.01).
Off the top of my head, I randomly thought of a division that historically I would have liked to have targeted with this strategy. I have no idea why, but my mind instantly went straight to Cam Newton MVP year and the 2011 NFC South?
So, I ran the game total numbers for every NFC South divisional game for the 2011 season to see what the story would reveal, detailed below…
The numbers are pretty crazy. In 2011 if best ball tournaments existed and if you would have targeted correlating and stacking players from the NFC South Divisions in drafts, you would have had exposure to 12 games with an average game total of 53.25 points, seven of those games being over 50 points (Note: Any game total over 50+ points is a nice chunk!)
An interesting thought and all, but what are the divisions that should be targeted this year? To take a mathematical approach, Josh Selway AKA Jobun AKA The Bun (@Selway151) found projected game totals for the entire 2021 season at SuperBook Sports. After he sent it to me, I feverishly pulled every projected game total and analyzed the numbers. Please find key findings below.
Game Totals For The Entire 2021 Season
Like in my random 2011 example, the NFC South is the only division that has four teams in the top 16 for highest average game totals for the entire season. Additionally, the NFC South is projected to have the highest intra-divisional scoring games at a near 50-point average (49.8). On the opposite end of the spectrum, the NFC North is holding up last (45.5), but the NFC East (45.8), AFC East (45.9), and AFC North (46.0) are all within 0.5 points of the NFC North’s bottom average.
2. Underdog Tournament: 2021 League Season Vs. 2021 Playoffs
If you’re not drafting best ball teams on Underdog, well, then you should probably reevaluate your decision making processes in life and start drafting there. For Underdog’s best ball tournaments, the structure is the following:
Weeks 1 to 14 is the qualifying round (team with most points advances to the quarterfinals)
Week 15 is the quarterfinals, week 16 is the semifinals, and week 17 is the finals
I’ve broken out the total and average game totals for divisional games for both the qualifying round and the playoffs as you could debate two separate strategies:
Front load the divisional games during the qualifying round (weeks 1 to 14); the theory being that the more games stacked with a run-back during the qualifying round could increase chance of advancing to the playoffs.
Back load the divisional games during the playoff round; the theory being that if a best ball team advances to the playoffs, the more games stacked with run-backs during the playoff rounds could increase chance of advancement each round.
Looking at the qualifier figure below, the AFC South (Jacksonville/Indianapolis/Tennesee/Houston) and the NFC West (Arizona/Los Angles Rams/San Francisco/Seattle) both have the most intra-divisional games (9) in the qualifier round. Looking at the playoff rounds, the NFC East (Dallas/New York Giants/Philadelphia/Washington) have the most number of games (5). Note that of the five NFC East intra-divisional games, two of the games are Washington vs. Philadelphia (weeks 15 and 17).
In Conclusion…
It is very important to make clear that game totals for an entire season should be taken with a great mountain of salt. The season is ever-changing which makes it difficult to predict. This is why other sportbooks like DraftKings only have game totals offered for the first week of the season, and no further.
This does not mean however that the game totals are not beneficial to assist in painting a clearer picture of what the coming season projects to be relative to matchups with all factors built in (schedule, offense, coaching changes, defenses faced, game scripts, etc.).
What about stacks, run-backs and tournament strategy?
If targeting stacks for intra-divisional games, it may be worth targeting the AFC South and NFC West when choosing a front loaded strategy for the qualifier round. The AFC South projects be the third highest scoring division with 9 games in weeks 1 to 14, while the NFC West also has 9 games and is the 4th highest projected scoring division.
If targeting a back loaded strategy, it may be beneficial to target the NFC South and AFC West, which both have three games with the first and second highest projected for the playoffs (weeks 15-17).
My thoughts?
If you adopt the intra-divisional stacking run-back strategy, target the division you are bullish on. Me: I love front loading the NFC West because they are expected to be the best division in football (listen to our Draftkings Market Update pods!). I also love the backloaded strategy with the NFC East as it has the most games (5) in the playoff rounds with one of the best offenses in football (Dallas) and three teams that could all be fun and explosive offensive teams, but are speculative preseason (Philadelphia, Washington, New York Giants).
Catch me in the drafting streets @SurplusOfCash everywhere and remember, intra-divisional stacking with runbacks is just a theory. I’ll test it for you. DO YOU.
A P.S. Analysis
Ahhh, yes. The focus of this post was to focus on intra-division stacking and run-backs, which we’ve done. However, wouldn’t it be nice to know about the teams that have the lowest and highest projected game totals for the playoffs not solely intra-division?
The first figure are the six teams with the lowest projected average game totals for weeks 15 to 17. Seeing Minnesota at the bottom of the list doesn’t exactly make me happy, but it doesn’t make me not like the offense and situation enough to not draft the entire offense. Philadelphia at the sixth lowest, I’ll fade that as well and take the chance that Philadelphia and Washington shootout not once, but twice.
After looking at the lowest projected, and now looking at the highest projected (the figure below), there is one key difference that stands out (other than the obvious that the highest scoring teams are more explosive offenses).
Do you see it? The difference is the number of indoor games that the lowest projected game totals teams play compared to the highest projected game total teams. Of the lowest projected teams, there is only one total indoor game. A lot of the locations of the games are also in potential bad winter weather environments (i.e. Philadelphia, Green Bay, Chicago). Now looking at the highest projected teams, 9 of the 18 games will be played indoors, and two of the teams (Arizona and Indianapolis) will play all three of their playoff games indoors. Ahhhh, Arizona…a front loaded intra-divisional schedule in a competitive division, a weakling in week 15 (Detroit), a playoff team in week 16 (Indianapolis), and potentially one of the best games on paper for the year week 17 (Dallas). My heart is full.
