2022 Underdog ADP Market Update I
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If you followed FU at all in 2021, then you know that the ADP market update is the heartbeat of our best ball podcast content. It is now time to take the market update one step further with a regular NFL Underdog market ADP update report, the frequency of which is subject to change as the season nears.
In each market update I will cover: notable risers, notable fallers, honorable mentions (more recent trends), and team steam stack prices.
The ADP is specific to standard roster settings drafts (1 QB- 2 RB - 3 WR -1 TE - 1 Flex - 12 Bench), not superflex.
Fallers
All notable fallers are specific to ADP over the last month, from February 7th to March 7th time frame. Positional ranking and ADP next to each players name is reflective of the March 7th date.
Odell Beckham Jr. - WR55 - ADP 123.9 - Down 49.7
Market Sentiment: Injury
Odell Beckham Jr. is falling after suffering a torn ACL in the super bowl, currently down near 60 spots from his high of ADP 68. In slow drafts, I have seen him fall to the 16th round. For comparison, this fall reminds me of Rashod Bateman in 2021 who ended up falling 50 spots to 165 ADP, WR 74. Bateman ended up missing five games and finished WR 73. Beckham is not Bateman, but the point is that the uncertainty of Odell’s timetable to return will continue to keep his ADP down, and will dictate his potential return of value.
Kenneth Walker - RB30 - ADP 94.9 - Down 10.2
Market Sentiment: ?
Kenneth Walker was a surprise. As the season nears, rookies as a whole typically rise. Walker had a good NFL combine running a 4.38 40 yard dash amongst other quality measurables. This could be a case where the rookie is getting over looked by other more proven running backs in that particular price range (i.e. Leonard Fournette - 78.4, James Conner - 91.9, Tony Pollard - 97.2). The right landing spot in the draft (i.e. Miami) could trampoline his ADP, jumping 4 to 5 rounds towards the front of the draft.
Sony Michel - RB60 - ADP 204.9 - Down 27.9
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty, Back-Up RB
The faller in this group of two is Sony Michel, who has an inverse ADP correlation with 2021 teammate Darrell Henderson. Prior to the Super Bowl, both players ADP were similar around ~180, but post Super Bowl, each players ADP shifted in the opposite direction. In all likeliness this due to Henderson playing the #2 role behind Cam Akers in the Super Bowl, while Sony was mixed in lightly. Additionally, Michel is a free agent in 2022 so uncertainty of his future is being priced in. It is worth noting that in the last six weeks of the season Michel had two 20 point performances and one 17 point performance. He’s currently priced as RB60.
Carson Wentz - QB27 - ADP 205.9 - Down 28.8
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty
The rumors are buzzing that the Colts may potentially move on from Carson Wentz at quarterback, which is solely the reason for his ADP being driven down. If he does end up staying in Indianapolis or lands a starting job elsewhere, he does have potential to payoff his current price tag of QB27 as he finished 2021 as QB14.
Edit: Wentz has been traded to the Washington Commanders. I think his ADP will rise to the 150 -160 range (round 13 - 14 turn), which was his ADP in 2021 prior to suffering a foot injury.
James Robinson - RB42 - ADP 140.5 - Down 22.3
Market Sentiment: Injury, Uncertainty, Back-Up RB
The combination of 1) the return from injury and NFL debut anticipation of 2021 Rookie RB Travis Etienne plus 2) Robinson’s week 16 Achilles tear is compounding the fall of his ADP. In all games but one last year when Robinson received double digit carries, he scored double digit fantasy points. In 2020 he finished RB7. The chances of being the starter week 1 are stacked against Robinson as he will need a Cam Akers type recovery to get acclimated to new Head Coach Doug Pederson’s offense. Negative market sentiment weighs heavy on Robinson.
Below is a list of the top 10 fallers. Notice Pittsburgh Panthers Rookie QB Kenny Pickett made the list; I am sure his 8.5” hand size is being priced in.
Risers
All notable risers are specific to ADP over the last month, from the February 7th to March 7th time frame. Positional ranking and ADP next to each players name is reflective of the March 7th date.
Gabriel Davis - WR32 - ADP 66.3 - Up 10.7
Market Sentiment: Performance Hype
When you score four touchdowns in a playoff matchup, in debatably the most entertaining football game ever, with the entire world watching, the market is going to drive up your price. Unless their is a catastrophic event, it is going to be difficult to slow this freight train as fantasy twitter relentlessly shares clips from the Kansas City game for the next five months.
Kadarius Toney - WR38 - ADP 78.5 - Up 11.1
Market Sentiment: Performance Hype, Coaching Change
Kenny Golladay - WR53 - ADP 119 - Up 11.7
Market Sentiment: Coaching Change, Potential Market Correction
In his limited action in 2021, Toney showed serious flashes of talent, glitching his way across the field, and the market remembers that clearly at a mid 7th round price tag. Also, now that previous Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has replaced Joe Judge as head coach, an expectation of a mirrored pass heavy approach in New York could be additionally priced in.
It is worth noting that teammate Kenny Golladay has also been slowly rising, which could be a potential market correction. Golladay was a 3rd round wide receiver in 2020, and a 7th round wide receiver in 2021, but finished 2021 as WR84. He is currently being drafted in round(s) 10 - 11 as WR53.
Malik Willis - QB24 - ADP 170.2 - Up 20.1
Market Sentiment: Rookie Hype
Malik Willis hype is building and it can be felt with each Twitter log in. Willis is the dual threat quarterback type that the market likes to get behind, and will continue to get behind as the draft nears. He performed well at the combine and currently, Mel Kiper Jr. has Willis being drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with their 20th pick. Pittsburgh could be a #special fit and optimal fantasy landing spot. If the Steel City drafts Willis, he could be on a 2021 Trey Lance type ADP rocket ship. Regardless of landing spot, sentiment seems to be that Willis could be a potential starter out of the gate in 2022.
Allen Robinson - WR43 - ADP 88.6 - Up 11.6
Market Sentiment: Potential Market Correction, Uncertainty
Prior to a 2021 disappointing season finishing as WR86 (LOL), Allen Robinson finished 2019 as the WR11 and 2020 as the WR12. Reflective of those finishes, Robinson had a 2020 and 2021 3rd round price tag. Robinson could be be a name that is currently undervalued at a mid 7th round price, and we may continue to see a potential gradual rise in his ADP. However, based off his current price, it could be argued he is overvalued. Additionally, Robinson was not franchise tagged and will be headed towards free agency, adding a layer of uncertainty to his future. Another uncertain situation where landing spot could drive his ADP up or down.
Laviska Shenault Jr. - WR62 - ADP 137.5 - Up 13.2
Market Sentiment: Player Hype
If you thought failed 2021 Viska Szn would go quietly into the night, you were sadly mistaken. In all likeliness and seriousness, this very well could be just the beginning of a continuous rise in Shenault’s ADP as the Twitter Viska truthers brace for Viska Szn 3.0.
Food for thought: Travis Etienne missed the 2021 season, DJ Chark Jr. only played three games, special teams player turned slot WR Jamaal Agnew got hurt, Trevor Lawrence finished 7th in pass attempts with 602, and Laviska Shenault Jr. finished the season WR60.
Below is a list of the top 10 risers, seven of which are rookies (Tyler Allgeier, Christian Watson, Skyy Moore, Trey McBride, George Pickens, Malik Willis, Wan’Dale Robinson). Allgeier you can really feel that he is becoming a market late round flier favorite as drafters will break and reach at ADP. With the below for reference, now look back to rookie Kenneth Walker’s outlier falling ADP.
Honorable Mention
Below are fallers and risers not mentioned above. All players listed have started to trend down or up over the last two weeks. Positional ranking and ADP next to each players name is reflective of the March 7th date.
Antonio Brown - WR99 - ADP 221.8 - Down 11.7
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty
Antonio Brown’s spike the week of 2-22 was caused by Brown claiming he wanted to play in Baltimore and then being seen with Lamar Jackson the week of February 14th. That buzz has since subsided. Now drafters speculate will he ever play again after his unprecedented shirtless deuces walk-off, when he quit playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers mid-game.
Rob Gronkowski - TE23 - ADP 183.3 - Down 7.5
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty
Tom Brady retiring, plus free agency, plus potential risk of retirement himself, Rob Gronkowski’s ADP is beat up. Gronk is currently being drafted as TE22 after finishing 2021 TE6.
D’Onta Foreman - RB64 - ADP 217.1 - Down 7.1
Market Sentiment: Uncertainty, Back-Up RB
With Derrick Henry returning, Foreman is being priced as a high-end third string RB. Foreman is also a free agent with an uncertain future. In all fairness Foreman ended the 2021 season hot, emerging as the lead back in Tennessee in Henry’s absence.
Mitchell Trubisky - QB32 - ADP 229.2 - Up 9.5
Market Sentiment: Free Agency Hype
Mitchell Trubisky is thought to be one of the hottest free agent quarterbacks in 2021. There is speculation he could land a new starting job and get paid like a starter. Additionally, the latest reports signal that Trubisky could sign with the Giants to compete with Daniel Jones. If Trubisky lands in New York, I would expect Jones ADP to potentially fall from round 13 and to meet Trubisky’s rise in round(s) 16-17.
Jalen Tolbert - WR100 - ADP 224.4 - Up 6.7
Market Sentiment: Rookie Hype
Jalen Tolbert is a rookie WR from South Alabama. What I know about him is lately I have seen him getting drafted in the 19th round. Here are highlights and a scouting report.
Brevin Jordan - TE25 - ADP 195.9 - Up 10.8
Market Sentiment: Mills Szn
If you haven’t heard, it is Davis Mills Szn. 2022 will not just be Mills sophomore campaign, but also TE Brevin Jordan’s sophomore campaign. Jordan will be catching the ball from Mills, so in a way it is Brevin Jordan Szn, too.
Team Stack Pricing
The below team stack data sets have been created to paint the picture of what it actually costs to stack a team.
The “Underdog All Positions” data set is the average price of the first three, first four and first five picks from each team. For example, the first four picks for the Cincinnati Bengals is the most expensive stack in the market, where as the first four picks for the Houston Texans is the least expensive stack in the market (i.e. Bengals ADP: WR Ja’Marr Chase 5.8 + RB Joe Mixon 15.2 + WR Tee Higgins 26.8 + QB Joe Burrow 57.7 = 26 ADP Average Price, or Round 3 Average Price).
The “Underdog QB-WR-TE” data set excludes the RB position, and is reflective of the average price of the first three, first four and first five picks from each team. For example, the first four picks for the Buffalo Bills is the most expensive stack in the market, where as the first four picks for the Indianapolis Colts is the least expensive stack in the market. (i.e. Bills ADP: Stefon Diggs 14.9 + Josh Allen 24.8 + Gabriel Davis 66.3 + Dawson Knox 84.8 = 48 ADP Average Price, or Round 4 Average Price).
Each data set is sorted by most to least expensive stacks for the first four picks. The first four picks was selected because a QB is drafted in the first four picks on 70% of teams for all positions, and 80% of teams for only QB, WR and TE. Said another way, the first four picks is the best indicator that the quarterback is included in the price for most desirable players and stacks.
In the market update report, the data sets will be provided for reference. I will be dissecting/referencing each data set and how they can be used to our advantage in other posts. I will however provide a few high level notes for each data set below. Note that each data set is reflective of ADP from March 7th.
Team Stacks All Positions
The focus is primarily on the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos. Aaron Rodgers signing an extended deal with the Packers and WR Davante Adams being franchised tagged removes the uncertainty of both players potentially leaving, which I believe was priced into the offense as a whole. I expect the ADP’s to rise for the first four players being drafted from the Packers (Adams, Aaron Jones, Rodgers, AJ Dillon), which I believe will raise the teams stack price to the top 8 tier of most expensive stacks as the market prices back in positive sentiment for the offense.
Now that the Broncos have acquired Russell Wilson, I expect Wilson’s ADP to rise to the mid 6th round (currently late 8th), Jerry Jeudy to rise potentially to the 5th (currently mid 7th), and Courtland Sutton to rise to the 7th round (currently 8 - 9 turn). The next market update the Broncos will be nearing the Vikings at the front end of the second highest priced tier.
Team Stacks QB-WR-TE
The Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans are notable differences between the all positions data set and only QB, WR, TE data set. The Dolphins do not have a RB being drafted in their first four picks for all positions, so their price does not change when excluding RB from the QB-WR-TE data set (Ranked 26th all positions, ranked 14th QB-WR-TE). The Tennessee Titans fall 8 spots to the 24th ranked position when excluding RB Derek Henry, meaning it is relatively easy to draft a Ryan Tannehill stack with WR or TE pass catches.
As I look at the data, I don’t mind the Las Vegas Raiders prices now that Josh McDaniels is head coach. Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow and Derek Carr for an average 7th round draft pick. I will probably start buying.
More market updates and best ball content to come. Thanks for reading.
Additional Note-Important!!! Right now for all standard NFL drafts (not superflex) the ADP is rather stagnant because less volume of drafting due to the Big Board tournament filling. This means there will be an edge to be had (i.e. Green Bay Packers & Denver Broncos players) when the next tournament opens. Jump in early to take advantage!
