Study: Kings Of The DraftKings Yardage Scoring Bonus
August 3, 2020 will be remembered as an exciting day for best ball fanatics around the globe. The reason: the daily fantasy sports mammoth DraftKings launched best ball contests on its platform. This is very exciting, as it should only accelerate the popularity and rapid growth of best ball, which is still very much in its infancy.
As excited as I was to immediately jump into the action, I had to hold off.
Why? Because there’s gambling and then there’s strategic betting, and in my opinion the single most important rule of strategic betting in fantasy sports is to know the scoring system.
What makes DraftKings scoring unique is that it rewards three additional points for players that reach 300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing, or 100 yards receiving in a game.
Yes, I had a general idea of the players that benefit from this to type of scoring, but instead of assuming, I ran the numbers for the 2017-2019 and 2019 time periods to see what players and what stacks of players may receive an increase in value.
What quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards to receivers that also exceeded 100 yards receiving in a single game? How many games did these type of stacks hit in 2019? Who are the players most likely to pass for over 300 yards, receive for over 100 yards, and rush for over 100 yards? Those are all questions that this article and the data will answer. Up to this point in time, I am not aware of such analysis being completed.
2019 300 Yard Passing And 100 Yard Receiving Stacks
The data set below is sorted from greatest to least for stacks of quarterbacks and receivers that met both passing (300 yard) and receiving (100 yard) milestones in the same game for the year 2019. Note for reference that any game where a stack of a quarterback and receiver both met the yardage milestones, that roster would receive an additional six point total bonus (three points each).
Snapshot Team Breakdown: Tampa Bay had the most games (eight) of a quarterback and receiver both exceeding each milestone in the same game. Atlanta was second (seven) while the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints tied for third most (six). Notice that rushing Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (BAL) and Josh Allen (BUF) were at the bottom of the list. Note also that both DAL and LAR had outlier performances with four total games of one 300 yard passer and two 100 yard receivers (highlighted in green).
Click all images to enlarge
Snapshot Stack Breakdown By Team: The table below shows the 300 yard passing and 100 yard receiving stacks that occurred in at least two games in 2019. There were a total of 17 different unique stacks on 10 separate teams. Five of the teams had more than one unique stack: LAR had three (i.e. Goff/Kupp, Goff/Woods, Goff/Higbee), ATL had two, DAL had two, ARI had two, and DET had two. Each of the previous five teams accounted for eleven of the total 17 stacks. Brees/Thomas (five) and Fitzpatrick/Parker (four) were the only single team occurring stacks that hit in more than two games.
Total 300 Yard Passing Games, 100 Yard Rushing Games, and 100 Yard Receiving Games By Player For 2017-2019 And 2019 Time Periods
Quarterback 300 Yard Passing Games
Snapshot Breakdown: Just like stack data sets for 2019, similar quarterbacks are on both data sets below. Over the last three years both Winston and Mahomes have thrown for over 300 yards passing in 50% or more of their games, while Ryan, Goff, and Rivers all exceed 300 yards in approximately 40% of their games. Ryan had 11 games, or 73% of his games, over 300 yards in 2019, which may be skewing his three year average up compared to Goff who looks steady at 40%.
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Quarterback 100 Yard Rushing Games
Snapshot Breakdown: A short list: Jackson and Allen are the only quarterbacks who have rushed for over 100 yards in the last three years. A unique value and worth noting that Jackson’s 5 games in 2019 was tied for sixth most in the league for all positions (Reference Running Back 100 Yard Rushing Data Set).
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Running Back 100 Yard Rushing Games
Snapshot Breakdown: Compared to quarterback 300 yard passing (11 players), only five running backs have rushed for over 100 yards in more than 30% of their games from the 2017-2019 time period. Elliot, Carson, and Chubb are players that are top 5 for both time periods. It is worth noting that Jacobs tallied 5 games in his rookie campaign.
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Running Back 100 Yard Receiving Games
Snapshot Breakdown: Another short list, McCaffrey is nearly averaging two 100 yard receiving games per year. Ekeler had a breakout year in 2019 with 3 100+ performances and will look to continue this consistency in 2020. Kamara did not have a 100 yard receiving game in 2019, which was the first year for him to not accomplish that feat.
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Wide Receiver 100 Yard Receiving Games
Snapshot Breakdown: The list below is not that surprising based on the market’s current evaluation in fantasy drafts. Jones has been king the last three years, totaling 20 games of 100 yards receiving. Thomas had a career year in 2019 with 10 games over 100 yards. Thielen (injuries) and Smith-Schuster (Roethlisberger injured) fell off in 2019, but will look to get back on track in 2020. Kupp and Cooper are stack notables that have had 100 yards receiving in 20% or more of their games for both time periods.
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Tight End 100 Yard Receiving Games
Snapshot Breakdown: 100 yard receiving games for tight ends has not been nearly as plentiful as wide receiver. Only Kelce and Waller have totaled 100 receiving yards in 20% or more of their games the last three years (all five of Waller’s games were produced in 2019). It is worth noting that in 2019 all four of Higbee’s 100 yards games were in the second half of the season. Also, it is worth noting that in 2019 Engram was on track for four games prior to being hurt.
Red: Player Is Not Currently Active, Blue:=>50%, Green: 30%-49%,
Yellow: 20-29%
Concluding Thoughts
The purpose of this analysis was to understand the players that may benefit the most from DraftKings three point yardage premium scoring. Based off this small sample, below are a few concluding thoughts and situations that appear to receive a bump in value when drafting in best ball contests on DraftKings.
Theory: Based on the “2019 300 Yard Passer And 100 Yard Receivers Same Week” data, it may be inferred that teams that had more than one unique stack occurrence (i.e. LAR), that a quarterback may the tendency to change his favorite target in a single game when throwing for more than 300 yards (i.e. Goff/Kupp-three games, Goff/Woods-three games). It may also be inferred that a quarterback more highly favors a particular target on teams (i.e. NOR) that had only one stack occurring multiple times (i.e. Brees had five games over 300 yard passing and each of those games Thomas had over 100 yards receiving).
Added Value: The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams quarterbacks and receivers. Matt Ryan and Jared Goff have both finished top three in 300 yard passing games over the last three years. In 2019, Ryan and Goff also both had multiple stacks where a receiver had 100 yards he same game they had 300 yards passing. Ryan has been consistent loading up Julio Jones, as Jones has had the most 100 yard receiving games over the last three years, while Goff has appeared to spread it around more between receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
Added Value: Michael Thomas and Drew Brees. When drafting Thomas, it may make sense to intentionally target and draft Brees as a later game stack every chance you can, as Brees and Thomas had the most simultaneous yardage milestone games of any QB/Receiver combination. Consider this for other cases of a “true number 1,” like in Washington with Terry McLaurin (just as one example…)
Added Value: Ezekiel Elliot, Chris Carson, and Nick Chubb, all three running backs had the top five most 100 yard rushing games over the 2017-2019 and 2019 time periods. My opinion: Proceed with caution on Carson (returning from injury) and Chubb (Kareem Hunt volume threat).
Added Value: Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes stack. Mahomes had 7 games in 2019 of over 300 yards passing. Kelce is the only receiver on the team to have more than one 100 yard receiving game the same week when Mahomes 300 yard passing game. That, coupled with the fact that Kelce has had the most 100 yard receiving games out of all tight ends the last three years, may give him a slight bump more than he already has over other tight ends.
P.S. This strategy and analysis applies to all DraftKings fantasy football contests and not just best ball. All DraftKings contests reward three point scoring premium for 300 yards passing, 100 yards receiving, and 100 yards rushing.
I hope you enjoyed this data. Please now excuse me as I jump into a DraftKings best ball draft.
