Fantasy Take: Juju Smith-Schuster And The Steelers
**UPDATE FROM July 7: My reflection on this situation after the past month and a half has led me to approach it a bit differently. For starters, the market is already high on Juju. He was drafted 36th overall in my most recent Drafters championship draft, but I usually see him go even earlier. I’ve come to realize I like the upside of otherWRs in that range.
The way I see it, if the Steelers offense has a strong year, that will required the continued emergence of Diontae Johnson. He’s the one I’ve been focusing on, making sure to grab him in multiple best ball tourneys on Drafters. His upside could mean he’s a third round pick next year, and that’s the type of potential value shift you wanna target to win big.
The problem is Johnson is one of this offseason’s biggest darlings and everyone loves him. You’ll need to jump on him early if you want him. I drafted him in the eighth round of my last two best ball tourneys, which is above an already pricey market value. If you read on, you’ll hear my thoughts on Johnson from back in May, when his ADP was WAY lower.
I also think James Conner’s current ADP offers nice risk/reward, as well, should the Steelers have a healthy season. So while the buzz has worn off a bit on Juju specifically, I’m still fairly high on the potential from the Steelers fantasy pieces given their affordable ADPs.
ORIGINAL FROM MAY 20: Hello fantasy land. Hello Australia.
I’ve been hammering the Steelers in my early offseason best ball drafts over on Drafters. Like, really hammering. I’ve been grabbing a ton of Ben Roethlisberger late, and have formed a few stacks already with him, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson.
In fact, I recently took Juju 20th overall in a best ball draft... I know, I know. Let’s take a quick look at the situation to see how high I truly am on the Steelers.
Big Ben’s Health
The success of the Steelers offense really depends on if Ben returns to full health… or near full health. He’s only a year removed from a 5,000-yard season, but he’s also 38 years old, so him staying healthy is a big if, and don’t blame anyone for keeping their distance.
ANYONE HAVE ADVIL
I’M ALL ABOUT BIG IFS THOUGH, especially at the type of discount the Steelers are going at now. Ben’s ADP right now is 138 on Drafters, putting him as the QB19. His last full season in 2018 he finished as the QB3. Fresh off an illegal haircut, Ben could torch his current ADP if he stays healthy.
Steelers Built for Defense
The other variable here is that this Steelers team is really built around the defense, and with Ben’s age, will they want to go more run heavy and lean on that defense more. Even if this is a thought inside the organization, you still have to consider that Ben is essentially the offensive coordinator and he wants to throw it 500 times a game.
Emergence of Diontae Johnson
I’m a huge Diontae Johnson fan, and I’m still kicking myself over missing his huge game against Arizona last year in DFS.
Diontae has SPECIAL potential, and I even see a scenario where he can produce near the level, or better, of Juju, if he takes a major leap. The dude has serious playmaking ability. However, for the sake of Juju, I am hoping Diontae and the other receivers do take a step forward, and such an emergence will allow Juju to play back in the slot more where he can really shine.
Keep an eye on Diontae Johnson’s ADP. Right now on Drafters he’s going off the board at 117, behind Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Williams, and Rob Gronkowski to name a few. He’s a tremendous upside play, and his continued emergence could turn out to be beneficial for Juju, instead of a hindrance, similar to how Antonio Brown’s outside presence opened up the middle of the field for Juju.
Taking a Chance
This is one place I’m taking a shot right now. Juju’s ADP on Drafters is 33.2, whereas Amari Cooper, who as of now I’ve faded completely (I’ll grab some shares eventually... maybe) is 22, and I’m even taking him before Chris Godwin (get off me) who’s right now going at 17.5 overall.
A responsible fantasy writer would say something about not needing to take Juju in the second round because his value comes in the third, but I haven’t been able to help myself. I love his Twitch channel, okay
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The Steelers are an even bigger discount according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s half-point PPR ADP. Here’s where Juju is sitting over there.
I understand the bearish case for Juju and the Steelers. That’s well in their range of outcomes. Heck, it’s likely the more probable outcome compared to my unnecessarily high and potentially self-defeating rank of Juju. But right now this a place I’m simply taking a shot.
Given my heavy exposure early in the offseason and lingering self doubt about everything I do in life, I may pump the brakes a bit going forward… but maybe not, especially if the market doesn’t adjust at all. I’ve heard a few analysts, including King Silva, discuss the Steelers’ low ADPs, so we could see them begin to rise soon… and that’s especially true if Ben’s health looks good as the season nears.
If you’re not about the Juju life, however, that price on Diontae Johnson is savory for a breakout candidate that’s going around a bunch of low ceiling dopes, and if you lock up a solid QB1 on your roster, Ben’s ADP leaves him as a nice late-round bet.
HOW HIGH: 8.5/10, a little paranoid
I love Juju and the discount on the Steelers in general, but I may be getting ahead of myself with how high I’m moving on Juju. It may be wiser to keep focusing on Diontae Johnson and making sure I’m taking him ahead of ADP, while grabbing Juju shares when they fall to me in the third. And honestly another Roethlisberger injury does scare me, so I don’t want to go overboard with exposure there, either, despite the ridiculous risk/reward of his ADP.
