Fantasy Outlook: Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers
Josh Allen loves to throw it long. It doesn’t matter if the wide receiver is in single, double, or even triple coverage. He’ll let that baby sling. The only problem is that taking a lot of shots deep doesn’t mean jack-diddly-hoo-haa-squat for fantasy managers when he is overthrowing his target time, and time again.
Let’s take a quick look at Allen’s 2019 deep ball (20 yards+) statistics from PFF.com:
He threw 68 deep passes (9th most)
Of those 68 deep passes, he had only 18 completions
His 30% deep accuracy was worse than 2018 (36.5%), and was the worst out of all quarterbacks in the top 10 for most deep passes attempted
His QBR did improve a whopping two points from 62.9 QBR in 2018 to 64.4 in 2019. Again, the worst QBR out of all quarterbacks in the top 10 who attempted the most deep passes
The numbers really are truly ugly. The positive here is that he has been consistently bad both years, which it may be safe to call his poor performance a solid floor. How can it get worse, right?
After all, with the new addition of Stefon Diggs, he now has two of 2019’s top 12 deep ball fantasy producing WRs to throw to.
In 2019, Diggs finished first in deep ball .5 point PPR fantasy points (107.5) and John Brown finished 12th (62.2)
Let’s think about it, Diggs runs a 4.46 40 yard dash and John Brown runs a 4.34. These guys aren’t depending on their deep ball production to come from contested, acrobatic, 50/50 jump balls. Instead, they just turn up the juice and blow smoke past corners. Two guys that will be very hard to overthrow, all Allen should need to do is keep the ball between the white lines. I’d say a perfect opportunity for a strong armed inaccurate passer!
Fun Fact: Shocking discovery for me, John Brown isn’t nicknamed “Smokey” because of his speed. It just so happens to be the most unintended best fitting nickname for his God given blazing speed.
My 2020 Buffalo WR Best Ball Outlook
Stefon Diggs
Diggs will be the #1 wide receiving threat on the team, which means that he will be the one to draw double coverage. Currently, I am not getting a lot of Diggs exposure as he is being drafted in rounds four to five. There are other WRs in that range that I just like more (i.e. D.J. Chark, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods). This however does not mean that Diggs is a bad pick. His ceiling is sky high and I will scoop him up if he falls to the sixth round. It does happen.
John Brown
With double coverage on Diggs, this should create a nice opportunity for John Brown to really throw wood on the fire against corners who are forced to face him 1-V-1. I have no problem picking up Brown shares in drafts. Reasons being:
Value - Brown seems to be a great value ‘slippage’ player in drafts, consistently falling out of his ADP in the eighth round to the tenth round
Proven production - He was the #23 wide receiver in 2019
Proven chemistry - He was Josh Allens #1 targeted WR last year (117 targets)
Weekly boom potential - Targeting wide receivers that can break a slate any given week are good value targets at wide receiver in the mid-late to late rounds. Brown’s ability to stretch the field with his speed provides that upside on a weekly basis. Specific to best ball, you don’t need to make the boom or bust start sit decision. Reap the benefits on the boom weeks when they hit
Cole Beasley
It’s funny. I wrote this initially in May and said, “Lastly, I have been finding myself adding Cole Beasely’s shares lately ( ADP 168: Round 14 on @DraftersFantasy).” Well, let me tell you that I am not just adding Beasley shares, but he is one of my highest owned best ball players at 28%. COLE- FRICKEN-BEASLEY.
Beasley isn’t exactly a guy that is a deep ball threat with a high ceiling upside, but he is a consistent producer that should cover the volatile high ceiling players that also bust.
Known for his slot performance, in 2019, Beasely ran the 16th most snaps in the league out of the slot. As I expect Diggs and Brown to draw attention by streaking down the field, I can’t help but think Beasely will be collecting checkdowns and passes in the middle of the field all season. Not sexy, but productive, and most importantly, cheap (his ADP is now currently 184 on @DraftersFantasy). Note that I will be dropping an analysis in the FantasyArticles section that further explains this strategy and my overly bizarre love for Cole Beasley. Laughing as I type that.
In conclusion, regardless of how bad Josh Allen has been throwing the ball deep (REALLY bad), he loves to throw hail marys and now has not one, but two lightning fast wide receivers to throw them to. A lot of hail marys is greatly desired fantasy opportunity for wide receivers like Diggs and Brown, who literally burn MFers deep for a living. On the flip side, Beasely should benefit from that stretching of the defense, playing the role as the checkdown guy in the offense, collecting catches.
I envision there to be a lot of burning and smoke with the snow in Buffalo. Please excuse me as I hammer the Bills 8.5 game win total over on DraftKings.
